Analysis of Hard Drive Reliability Trends: A 2023 Report by Backblaze

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Backblaze, a provider of backup and cloud storage solutions, has disclosed its hard drive failure data for the year 2023, encompassing an analysis of 35 hard drive models with a collective count of nearly 270,000 units. The report highlights a discernible trend towards decreasing reliability across the analyzed models, with specific reference to Seagate models exhibiting the highest failure rates. The dataset includes information on each model's operational duration, total population, and the observed failure instances, culminating in the calculation of the average annual failure rate (AFR). Notably, the study incorporates drives with service periods extending beyond 8.5 years, revealing an overall AFR of 1.7%.

A more granular examination of the most widely used hard drive models over the last three years indicates an upward trajectory in AFRs, signaling a decline in reliability. Seagate's 14 TB model was pinpointed as the least reliable, whereas Western Digital's 16 TB variant demonstrated the lowest failure rate.

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The analysis further delves into AFR trends from Q1 2021 through Q4 2023, taking into account the drives' capacities and operational hours. Findings suggest that 6 TB drives are the most robust, whereas 10 TB models are more prone to failures.

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Additionally, the report assesses failure rates based on the age of the drives, with data encompassing brands such as HGST, Seagate, Toshiba, and Western Digital. Over a span of 36 months, only Seagate drives exhibited failure rates exceeding 1.5%. Backblaze cautions that the dataset, while extensive, may not fully encapsulate the broader quality spectrum of hard drives, as the findings are confined to the models actively employed by the company.

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