Intel 10nm delay raises speculation of foundry business scale-down
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Silva
If they're struggling to get clients, it's because of price and nothing else.
As long as there is someone who does it cheaper, or more efficient, you'll lose.
I've seen videos explaining how we are getting to the limit of physics with how small a transistor can be.
I'd love to know how far are we really, because in most cases 10 nm from other fabs is equivalent to the Intel 14nm.
It upsets me they measure it differently and use it as marketing.
Fox2232
Kaarme
Intel was caught pants down by AMD/Ryzen, so it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of Intel's problems were caused by draconian measures to cut spending in R&D in order to fill the CEO's and stock owners' pockets instead (no doubt they still reported lots of billions used in R&D to avoid paying taxes). The original 10nm Cannon Lakes would have been the same old 4-core things we had seen too many times already, with exceptionally marginal performance increases, only made using the smaller process technology to increase Intel's profit per unit. Naturally they had to abandon such thoughts, and had to make the familiar 8000 series Coffee Lake instead, using Sky/Kaby lake as a basis. Even now Intel is still satisfied with the sales numbers, it's beating AMD nicely, so they aren't going to invest anything extra in the 10nm process development, thus making their progress so slow.
Intel is a financial corporation, not a technology corporation, after all.
Denial
JamesSneed
I don't believe they are moving away from the foundry at all. Like the article pointed out here Intel's 14nm is closer to others 10nm, although I will not go as far to agree with the 7nm piece, that's a stretch. TSMC has 7nm going now but I suspect we won't see any really high 4Ghz+ parts from their process, basically just like we aren't seeing from Intel's 10nm. Intel isn't really behind everyone else they just are not leading the path anymore. If Intel nails 10nm in 2019 they likely will be right on the same pace as AMD/Gloflo on 7nm which from what all the experts say Intel's 10nm and Gloflos 7nm should be similar densities. They have staffed up heavy on engineers lately grabbing the superstars of the Industry. It appears they are going to do the opposite that this article implies.
My prediction is that we'll see AMD roll out Ryzen Zen 2(I guess we have to say it like that due to the EPYC on TSMC and Ryzen on Gloflo split for 7nm) on Gloflos process before Intel has a high speed desktop part out on 10nm but they will be only 6-9 months behind AMD. I also think Intel's 10nm and AMD's 7nm processes will be the only 4Ghz+ capbabe processes at this feature size.
waltc3
AMD is putting the emphasis on cores as opposed to raw clocks--thinking about GHz clocks and nothing else is single-core thinking, for sure.. The days when the performance of one cpu over another could be measured by raw GHz are long gone. Talking about "5GHz" without reference to core count/IPC is fairly meaningless today--32-cores @ 4GHz will always trounce 16 cores @ 5GHz, assuming software that can run up to 32 threads/cores for both, etc., even if the 16-core cpu is slightly faster per core in IPC performance. IPC always has been more important than GHz, imo--ever since the single-core era, anyway. Best architectures employ an optimum balance between per-core IPC, number of cores, and raw GHz clocks. I agree that Intel is trying to change itself and that in 2020 it will be a different company--at least in its PC chips divisions--it will look a lot more like AMD does, today, I would guess. But then, again, AMD isn't sitting still and waiting on Intel, tapping its R&D foot, eh? Competition is the mother of innovation...;)
JamesSneed
Denial
Semiwiki for those interested:
Yeah but the difference is that AMD had nowhere to go but up in performance when they started shipping more cores with Ryzen. The number one seller of these chips isn't core counts or frequencies it's the bars on a graph in Page 5 of Hilbert's review that shows the newly released shiny processors faster than last years model. That's the stuff the kid's crave.
Take for example if Intel shipped a 12 Core, 10nm part with similar IPC per clock to current gen but it was only capable of hitting 4.2Ghz, potentially 4.4/4.5 OC. Nearly every game benchmark and a fair number of application benchmarks would show an outright regression in performance. It would look terrible for Intel in general consumer reviews. Then you have to ask, how many more cores or how low of a price would Intel need to add to such a part to make it redeemable to the general consumer? People like "Extreme FPS Connoisseur @las " would literally shit the bed and no price point would ever make that product redeemable to him.. I think most people would just buy the 14nm older chips because the vast majority of people don't need more than 8 cores for the foreseeable future.
AMD never experienced this when it scaled core count because Ryzen came with a 65%+ IPC uplift. So it just looked significantly better across the entire spectrum of benchmarks compared to prior products. Intel wasn't shipping 8 core consumer parts than either.. so multicore numbers were higher than Intel's products at the same price point (the one reviewers were comparing too). Those general "all boat" lifting IPC increases are gone now though - there really isn't anything coming down the pipeline in academia either. Most of the newer IPC improvements are done for specific workloads, like AVX for example. So Intel needs to at least achieve clockspeed parity with its current generation before it can rely on core count as a useful differentiator.
Most of what I read though shows that with 10nm yields are the primary issue - Intel started their transition to that density early so it's working with older technology.
Here is a quote from xrodney
It all depends what are actually issues with Intels10nm process, if its yield that can be in most cases improved relatively easy, if its low clock speed then its harder, but given that Intel will be 4 years late to market if he manage use it in 2019 those problems have to be quite lot of problems in both areas.
Another question is what and how quickly Intel can do with their CPU architecture because for their top end 28core they seems to have bad yield even on state of art tuned 14nm+++ and moving to 10nm its likely getting worse.
I don't see Intel even keeping pace with AMD for next 2 or so years, unless they already hve their "infinity fabric" alternative and were already working on MCM CPU design past few years.
JamesSneed
xrodney
xrodney
Fox2232
xrodney
JamesSneed
@xrodney All that is true. Honestly I expect 6 months at a max a year of AMD slaughtering Intel starting sometime in 2019, until Intel outs Ice Lake on 10nm in 2020. AMD moving EPYC to TSMC must have Intel freaking out as EPYC will be in mass production much sooner since TSMC is a good bit ahead of Gloflo on 7nm. I'm pretty sure Intel are going to lose a ton of data center sales to EPYC on 7nm in 2019. I don't think Ryzen Zen 2 will be terribly ahead ahead of Intel as getting 7nm to scale up frequencies(they need that in the desktop space) likely will take a few iterations and time to get that down with acceptable yields.
tunejunky
1) Intel is playing catch-up with TSMC for fab customers.
2) Intel is playing catch-up with AMD for chip design.
3) the o.e.m fab business is relatively new to Intel, but is TSMC's bread and butter.
4) complacency across the board is the source of all of Intel's woes.
5) fighting complacency is the cure to all of its ills.