metagamer:

NAND will be in museums 15 years from now.

metagamer:

2.5" SSD Sata will be as good as dead in a matter of years, when everyone is rocking 8TB NVME

Now I'm confused. You do realize that both SATA and typical NVMe are still NAND Flash, right? The only commercial new tech which is not NAND is Intel's "Optane" drives (aka 3D X-Point), which unfortunately was too expensive to produce to replace NAND, and ultimately failed. Maybe something like that will come back later in an easier to produce format, and prices similar to NAND or even cheaper. Until that time, we're stuck with the crappy charge traps which degrade when erased and rewritten, and suffer from rapid bit rot if not powered. Oh well...

metagamer:

Nah, but I've seen computers since the 80s and I've seen all the new tech come and go. I've seen no hard drive, I've seen some slow ass hard drives, I've seen all kinds of different interfaces and speeds. None of them are here any more. 2.5" SSD Sata will be as good as dead in a matter of years, when everyone is rocking 8TB NVME x.0 drives with blistering speeds, costing next to peanuts.

It's highly unlikely, people don't even use 8TB HDDs widely, much less SSDs. I doubt that SATA will be gone anytime soon. It is more likely that high end NVMe drives will be offered as expansion PCIe cards once again due to heat and power constraints of M.2 slot.

wavetrex:

Now I'm confused. You do realize that both SATA and typical NVMe are still NAND Flash, right? The only commercial new tech which is not NAND is Intel's "Optane" drives (aka 3D X-Point), which unfortunately was too expensive to produce to replace NAND, and ultimately failed. Maybe something like that will come back later in an easier to produce format, and prices similar to NAND or even cheaper. Until that time, we're stuck with the crappy charge traps which degrade when erased and rewritten, and suffer from rapid bit rot if not powered. Oh well...

Yeah, and that's my bad, I was more on about SATA SSD 2.5" drives. These will be done in 10 years, probably a lot less than that. That's what I meant.

Raserian:

It's highly unlikely, people don't even use 8TB HDDs widely, much less SSDs. I doubt that SATA will be gone anytime soon. It is more likely that high end NVMe drives will be offered as expansion PCIe cards once again due to heat and power constraints of M.2 slot.

With DirectStorage about to make a big splash over the next couple of years, it's pretty obvious, to me at least, that NVME 4.0 will be THE storage device going forward. Nobody should be buying 2.5" SATA SSDs these days anyway, the price of NVME 4.0 sticks is so low. Theorycrafting about my fresh build about 2 years from now, I'll most likely put a single massive NVME 4.0 stick in there and probably use an external HDD for backups (2TB at most) and VR Porn (the rest). 10 years from now, there's no way any PC enthusiast is putting a 2.5" SATA SSD inside their case. No chance.

metagamer:

With DirectStorage about to make a big splash over the next couple of years, it's pretty obvious, to me at least, that NVME 4.0 will be THE storage device going forward. Nobody should be buying 2.5" SATA SSDs these days anyway, the price of NVME 4.0 sticks is so low. Theorycrafting about my fresh build about 2 years from now, I'll most likely put a single massive NVME 4.0 stick in there and probably use an external HDD for backups (2TB at most) and VR Porn (the rest). 10 years from now, there's no way any PC enthusiast is putting a 2.5" SATA SSD inside their case. No chance.

SATA is not an high end option even today, nevertheless, most computers will be running them for foreseeable future. Although, I must say, running NVMe does not define enthusiast. In fact buying newest and expensive hardware, even for games or professional work is kind of unnecessary in most cases. I am an enthusiast and I never really owned anything newest or highest end. Most hardware I ever owned was midrange at best with most things I bought used. Community had come with the terms that enthusiast is just someone throwing money at any problem, which is kind of bad. Enthusiasts used to be guys who were able to get maximum out of their inexpensive hardware. There are limits to this ofc, but there was never a better time to buy cheap second hand hardware and get max out of it, the longevity and backwards compatibility is just awesome. Budget oriented guys on youtube are kicking ass with overclocked first gen i7 processors like nothing, playing latest games and using modern software. So unless you are really into 4K/VR/multi-monitor gaming, heavy rendering or video work and something similar, NVMe 4 is just not going to help you all that much.

I would use the cloud for large files I might occasionally use anyway. When I see my parents usecase, they’re barely using 500gb, with everything stored online already.

wavetrex:

https://www.amazon.de/-/en/dp/B07Y3JXGPL/ - 14 TB, 270 € (quite a lot, I got many of mine even cheaper than this, but since then all prices have gone up) https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Crucial-MX500-CT2000MX500SSD1-NAND-Internal/dp/B003J5JB12/ - 2TB, 110 € x 7 = 770 € Yeah, I also wonder why HDDs haven't disappeared already... 🙄

EXACTLY THIS. SSDs at very large capacities are WAY out of consumer's hands. I'm the first one to ask the Kioxias of this world to release SSDs using 3.5" format and try to get that stupid price down. M.2 SSDs in Canada are still stupid expensive, partly because of suck ass dollar. Here, with M2 SSDs, regular prices only: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B08P2CG4JK Sabrent Rocket 4 Plus 2TB. 270$CAD. https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B08VF99PV8 Sabrent Rocket 4 Plus 4TB. 730$ (2.7x price increase over 2TB) https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B09WZK8YMY Sabrent Rocket 4 Plus 8TB. 1450$ (5.37x price increase over 2TB, 1.98x over 4TB) Now with regular hard drives! (regular prices only) - Don't shop these with Amazon, please... https://www.newegg.ca/blue-wd20ezbx-2tb/p/N82E16822234469 WD Blue 7200rpm 2TB, 70$ https://www.newegg.ca/wd40ezaz-14tb/p/1Z4-0002-01CG2 WD Blue 5400rpm 4TB, 130$ https://www.newegg.ca/blue-wd80eazz-8tb/p/N82E16822234496 WD Blue 5640rpm 8TB, 240$ But what about 2.5" SATA SSDs? https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B08QB93S6R Samsung 870 EVO 2TB 200$ https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B08QBL36GF Samsung 870 EVO 4TB 550$ https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B089C3TZL9 Samsung 870 QVO 8TB 900$ As you can see, regular HDDs are STILL king of value for very, very high capapcity storage. Heck, most of these drives currently have rebates on them. The thing is, it's that SSDs needs a fast CPU and RAM on them for their controllers so they can do their logic. That's where they need cooling themselves. Until a technology arrives that's as fast as the M2 SSDs and don't need such a complicated controllers, these will most probably become the next kings of space versus money. For now, you can get a 30TB 2.5" SSD from Kioxia for several 10k dollars. 🙂

Lebon30:

EXACTLY THIS. SSDs at very large capacities are WAY out of consumer's hands. I'm the first one to ask the Kioxias of this world to release SSDs using 3.5" format and try to get that stupid price down. M.2 SSDs in Canada are still stupid expensive, partly because of suck ass dollar. Here, with M2 SSDs, regular prices only: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B08P2CG4JK Sabrent Rocket 4 Plus 2TB. 270$CAD. https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B08VF99PV8 Sabrent Rocket 4 Plus 4TB. 730$ (2.7x price increase over 2TB) https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B09WZK8YMY Sabrent Rocket 4 Plus 8TB. 1450$ (5.37x price increase over 2TB, 1.98x over 4TB) Now with regular hard drives! (regular prices only) - Don't shop these with Amazon, please... https://www.newegg.ca/blue-wd20ezbx-2tb/p/N82E16822234469 WD Blue 7200rpm 2TB, 70$ https://www.newegg.ca/wd40ezaz-14tb/p/1Z4-0002-01CG2 WD Blue 5400rpm 4TB, 130$ https://www.newegg.ca/blue-wd80eazz-8tb/p/N82E16822234496 WD Blue 5640rpm 8TB, 240$ But what about 2.5" SATA SSDs? https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B08QB93S6R Samsung 870 EVO 2TB 200$ https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B08QBL36GF Samsung 870 EVO 4TB 550$ https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B089C3TZL9 Samsung 870 QVO 8TB 900$ As you can see, regular HDDs are STILL king of value for very, very high capapcity storage. Heck, most of these drives currently have rebates on them. The thing is, it's that SSDs needs a fast CPU and RAM on them for their controllers so they can do their logic. That's where they need cooling themselves. Until a technology arrives that's as fast as the M2 SSDs and don't need such a complicated controllers, these will most probably become the next kings of space versus money. For now, you can get a 30TB 2.5" SSD from Kioxia for several 10k dollars. 🙂

all true but depend on the application. most Cloud servers (at least the good ones) have long since migrated to ssd, m.2, u2 or not just because - high speed internet ya'know. but on the flip-side there are some that don't need the blistering speed like music streamers, where the fastest bit-rate is still easily dealt within SATA speeds. i maintained a RAID array for 20 years before switching out to ssd (SATA) RAID, then pcie non-RAID. the heat of hdd's is still a real issue as - motors and actuators - and every array had active cooling and required a sizeable enclosure. sometimes space IS the final frontier, as now w/ my mobo slots and pcie card i have more memory than my last array (10Tb) at no cost of space for enclosure or need to route wires , with no need for any active cooling other than my case airflow. my DAW / htpc share a 12Tb M.2 network drive that's the size of a 3.5" ssd placed next to my router. none of this was done overnight due to the expense you noted. sometimes when you live with someone you have to deal with objections that aren't always pure logic and have some emotions to it.

tunejunky:

all true but depend on the application. most Cloud servers (at least the good ones) have long since migrated to ssd, m.2, u2 or not just because - high speed internet ya'know. but on the flip-side there are some that don't need the blistering speed like music streamers, where the fastest bit-rate is still easily dealt within SATA speeds.

Yes it depends a lot on the application. Cloud servers that service 10.000 users or more and the seemingly random reads from 10.000 people, needs a SSD because the HDD seek time would kill the performance. They probably still have HDD storage for backup though depending on how often the data is replaced completely. Distributors of a game update like WOW or something similar can easily store the update on a HDD, do a 10 minute preload of files to memory and distribute to 1 million users if the internet speed and latency allows. For controlled scheduled backup 10 HDD drives at 200MB/s needs 16 Gbit/s internet to keep the disks busy. Simultaneous broadcast of 4K video with sequential reading to millions of people runs fine on a modern Sata HDD with 200MB/s speed.

https://www.tikispaceshipearth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/emaze.png Some will remember/understand the analogy.

anticupidon:

Some will remember/understand the analogy.

Some do not understand that unlike transistor vs tube, SSD-s are not beating HDDs in either price or capacity. Transistor was: + A lot cheaper + A hell of a lot faster + A TON more reliable + Much, much smaller + Consuming way less electricity in use and giant orders of magnitude when idle + Very easy to produce SSDs vs HDD: + Are significantly faster: + Are quiet ... but: - Much more expensive to produce, required extremely complicated 3D litho tech and packing to match HDD capacity - Can only be written a limited amount of times ( since TLC, and horribly worse for QLC ) - Don't really consume less power, since more chips are needed to match the capacity - Run very hot when actively in use - Not really more reliable, and when they die, they are pretty much impossible to repair/recover - Do not hold cold data for long (unlike magnetic which could be read just fine after 20 years in cold storage) So, bad comparison, there are many disadvantages to SSDs, which was not the case with transistor vs tube.

Highly doubt this. This is said all the time. Its a joke. I dont see an 8TB SSD for under $90. But I can get some 10TB for about that used with near perfect life.

@wavetrex Maybe was not the best analogy, I'll admit. I was hinting that even today vacuum tubes are manufactured and, in some hobbyist branch, in high demand. Those didn't simply disappeared.

anticupidon:

@wavetrex Maybe was not the best analogy, I'll admit. I was hinting that even today vacuum tubes are manufactured and, in some hobbyist branch, in high demand. Those didn't simply disappeared.

yes but there was almost 20 years before vacuum tubes were made again in the west. i know the eastern bloc still had factories but western/ Chinese production was restarted from old machinery. same thing w/ vinyl, there was over a decade before LP's had ltd release and in small numbers. it was a "big" story when people bought the lp mastering and stamping equipment from Euro labels to start boutique businesses. nostalgia sells, hifi enthusiasts love to split hairs (confession), and geeks love gear

For computing, they were never reused. Leave audiophille amplification stuff away from this discussion, it's completely not relevant to how we store and move bits of data.

tunejunky:

all true but depend on the application. most Cloud servers (at least the good ones) have long since migrated to ssd, m.2, u2 or not just because - high speed internet ya'know. but on the flip-side there are some that don't need the blistering speed like music streamers, where the fastest bit-rate is still easily dealt within SATA speeds. i maintained a RAID array for 20 years before switching out to ssd (SATA) RAID, then pcie non-RAID. the heat of hdd's is still a real issue as - motors and actuators - and every array had active cooling and required a sizeable enclosure. sometimes space IS the final frontier, as now w/ my mobo slots and pcie card i have more memory than my last array (10Tb) at no cost of space for enclosure or need to route wires , with no need for any active cooling other than my case airflow. my DAW / htpc share a 12Tb M.2 network drive that's the size of a 3.5" ssd placed next to my router. none of this was done overnight due to the expense you noted. sometimes when you live with someone you have to deal with objections that aren't always pure logic and have some emotions to it.

For me, it's not the speed per se, although it is nice. It's more like the fact that there's no mechanical parts at all. I have a Synology NAS because, well, I don't have much room to put a full server JBOD anywhere and I'm sick of putting 3.5" drives in my case. For me, I'm more of a digital hoarder than anything else.