HDDs Predicted to Disappear by 2028
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rl66
The main factor of change will be price AND volume per unit:
price of SSD 8To = price of HDD 18To 22To depending on the brand
Also 18To and more per unit on a SSD is not for now...
And on security point too, when a SSD fail you save near nothing when on a HDD you can repair at lower cost to get some of the data.
Where SSD kick is below 4To as the price is ok compared to HDD (i would never get a HDD below 4To myself).
But yes HDD fade away from personal use, i have no more HDD on my 3 computers, HDD are only on the server and the NAS.
rl66
Don't forget electric problem, as i live in moutain with sea at few km, when there is a storm , there is a lot of lightning, once we had at night 2 on the lightning rod on top, everything was ok exept the 2 samsung 970 evo plus that were wiped 🙁
tsunami231
not happen, for that to happen SSD/NVME what ever you want to call them are all gona have to drop down in prices per tb in 5 years for to happen. and that is ignoring HDD is way better storage in long term.
pretty sure SSD dont like being power off for long periods of times? (or so i read) is this not still true?
schmidtbag
That was definitely the case many years ago but it isn't clear to me either if that's still a problem.
tsunami231
I ask cause 830 128gb is from that era when i heard that, I refuse wont keep pc power off long periods of time I have kept it off for 6+ months atlest twice cause i wasnt no home to even use pc. and had few programs not launch or take really long to launch, after not bing on that long.
Either way current price of the SSD/NMVE are enough for most people to agree hdd arnt going anywhere, 100+ for 2 tb to much imo consider for that price you can 4gb if not 6tb + on hdd size is more important then speed to me and most people. and i moved away from HDD in my system it all SSD (sata) i am not moving to NVME any time soon less i see some amazing sale i can not turn down.
I dont miss my HDD "noise" they made that bout it
Yosif Videlov
Simply NOT gonna happen soon. All enterprise servers depend on HDDs and while the consumer market for HDDs will shrink, they will not disappear soon before another large volume reliable technology emerges to replace them.
sighunter
the main problem of HDDs is speed, which will get worse the bigger the HDDs get. nobody cares about power demand, especially not in a datacenter
Venix
Hmm that might be true for the majority of home users ... Meaning people that today are fine with 2~4 tb there is really no reason for em to touch a spinner already so yeah most likely in 2028 the majority of home users 90%++ will be off hdds , we in this forum are not the normal home users :P
Silva
Mostly every consumer will have an SSD on their PC by now.
That said, storage wise I can't afford or wouldn't trust an SSD with my data. If an HDD fails, you can send it for recovery, forget that with SSD.
Then there is price: HDDs are much better yet. Unless I can buy two 10Tb SSD's for the price of a 10Tb HDD, no bueno.
Alessio1989
actually power demand in data-centres is the first parameter they look XD
Also having multiple "big" hdds is a huge waste of power, even on desktop. yes there is the stand by that means waiting many seconds to opening a folder or write something to wake them up from standby state. Finally you need to wait them to properly power down and drain the eccessive power on the PCB to shut down a power socket, this becomes annoying when you have many HDDs attached. And not, using the inertia rotation for shutting them down and draining the power isn't enough on modern drives, they still keep a notable charge even after the I/O head is back to shutdown position.
abula
The high capacity hdd are atm 22TB very expensive, retailing for $600 with sales of $450. dropping down to 18TB, we see retail sales around $300. Sata SSDs around 8TB are retailing around $700, seen one 15TB sata at $1500. There is also u.2/u.3 that even though its a server oriented drives, starting to come down, and likely will continue over time, i recently bought a 15.36TB Micron 7450 Pro for $1300.
The problem imo is how low can NAND prices go short term, it seems there is a lot more production than demand atm, and its driving pricing down, so much that some manufacturers are lowering their capacity, and some even considering exiting the NAND flash business.
But i still expect NAND ssds to drop around 30% each year, so a drive that its $1500 atm should end up $1050 in a year, $735 in two, $515 in three, $360 in four, $252 in five (around 2028). If we have 15tb ssds for $250 by 2028, we are likely to have 30tb for $500-600.
Now for hdd not to disappear by 2028, they need to increase their capacity heavily, i would say around 90-120TB for 2028 would be needed so the price per TB maintains the hdd attractiveness, and even then this more likely will be for servers, consumers likely wont need that much storage.
heffeque
I doubt NAND continues dropping in price at 30% per year. We've had ups and downs these years with NAND prices, I doubt those ups and downs stop happening.
AuerX
25 years from now there will be a huge demand for vintage HDD's in the Audiophile Hipsterverse.
metagamer
NAND will be in museums 15 years from now.
wavetrex
Do you have some insight on what will replace it?
Because you're probably right, NAND kinda sucks, linear speeds have increased massively but access time is as it was with first gen NVMe on PCI-e 3.0, QLC is an atrocity that should not exist, and while 3D cells have saved SSDs from early extinction, they can only grow so much...
RealNC
Give me 10TB for less than a $100 and I'll buy new HDDs :P
XenthorX
For enterprise needed extremely large storage it might stay alive, but for any end user, it's pretty much dead already?
HDD was the last thing making noise in mycase until a removed it a couple years ago. The less moving part the better, too many mechanical constraint from hard disk.
Astyanax
not going to happen.
TheDeeGee
All my cold backup storage is HDD.
metagamer
Nah, but I've seen computers since the 80s and I've seen all the new tech come and go. I've seen no hard drive, I've seen some slow ass hard drives, I've seen all kinds of different interfaces and speeds. None of them are here any more. 2.5" SSD Sata will be as good as dead in a matter of years, when everyone is rocking 8TB NVME x.0 drives with blistering speeds, costing next to peanuts.
