Supply and demand dynamics in the semiconductor industry are complex. As more companies shift to the 2nm process, there might be an increased demand for 3nm wafers. This could potentially elevate the price of 3nm wafers if demand exceeds manufacturing capacity. If 2nm wafers become excessively costly, companies might prefer the more economical 3nm option. This scenario could lead to a limited supply of 2nm wafers, stabilizing their value and aligning production with future demand.
IBS estimates that a 2-nanometer fabrication facility capable of producing about 50,000 wafers monthly would cost around $28 billion, compared to $20 billion for a 3-nanometer facility. This increase is largely attributed to the need for more advanced extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) equipment to sustain a 2-nanometer production capacity of 50,000 wafers per month. Consequently, the production cost for each wafer and chip has risen significantly. Apple, a key user of advanced processes, is likely to be impacted by these cost changes. Presently, Apple is the sole user of TSMC's latest N3B (3nm) processors for mass production in its smartphones and PCs.
IBS projects that when TSMC launches its 2nm process between 2025 and 2026, the cost of each 12-inch wafer used by Apple will be around $30,000. In comparison, the cost of 3nm wafers is estimated at about $20,000. However, semiconductor news outlet Tom's Hardware has noted that IBS's chip cost estimates might be overstated. IBS approximates Apple's cost per 3-nanometer wafer at $50, but the actual cost, factoring in an 85% yield rate, is closer to $40.
For the 2nm "Apple chips," IBS predicts a cost increase from $50 to roughly $85 per chip, possibly due to a lower yield rate. Based on a price of $30,000 per wafer and an 85% yield rate, the cost per chip is estimated at $60, though this figure is a general approximation.
Despite being preliminary estimates, it is evident that microprocessors using the 2nm process are more costly than those using 3nm. Meanwhile, companies like AMD and Intel are expected to accelerate the adoption of varying process technologies in the coming years to distribute the costs associated with advanced manufacturing techniques.
TSMC is at a critical point as competitors, such as Samsung, are advancing in the sector. Samsung plans to start 2nm wafer production, with current pricing not yet competitive but likely to change in the future. The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology is influencing companies like NVIDIA and AMD to consider 3nm wafers and more sophisticated fabrication processes for their future products. These advanced processes will facilitate the creation of more powerful, albeit more expensive, AI chips. NVIDIA, currently manufacturing AI chips at 5nm, already faces significant production costs. In conclusion, the differential pricing between 2nm and 3nm wafers is set to reshape the semiconductor industry, compelling companies to strategize carefully in terms of cost management and alignment with the evolving demands of technologies like AI.
