TSMC Chairman Discusses Prolonged Shortage of Nvidia's AI GPUs Due to CoWoS Constraints

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#6165602
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Prices going up due to demand...
#6165670
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For you younger people this would be a sign to find some established AI dividend stock and buy some. This is the new internet if you will.
#6165684
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Translation: "We are going to increase our prices again, so tough luck..."
#6165695
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I'm actually not sure what it's going to do. They don't have problems manufacturing H100 - it's the CoWoS packaging that's holding them up. So either Nvidia is going to have a massive oversupply of H100's, or they are going to artificially limit H100 manufacturing. In the meantime there's zero chance Nvidia stalls the next generation product so it's going to create a really weird scenario where they'll probably be competing against their own supply for a bit. Either way none of this should really affect gaming GPUs as none of them use CoWoS.
#6165709
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What's the weather forecast? Any floods, wild fires or earthquakes near them? Oh wait, that's reserved for HDD/SSD plants.
#6165740
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What's the excuse this time? A fly farted in the TSMC parking lot?
#6165792
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Denial:

I'm actually not sure what it's going to do. They don't have problems manufacturing H100 - it's the CoWoS packaging that's holding them up. So either Nvidia is going to have a massive oversupply of H100's, or they are going to artificially limit H100 manufacturing. In the meantime there's zero chance Nvidia stalls the next generation product so it's going to create a really weird scenario where they'll probably be competing against their own supply for a bit. Either way none of this should really affect gaming GPUs as none of them use CoWoS.
Also Gaming GPU is weird right now, as an exemple we have sold zero NVidia GPU and few AMD since month... (i think the zero GPU is mostly due to the "f*ck you, gamer" politic during mining craze... ) Everyone buy 2nd hand previous gen high end GPU, at actual price of entry level's GPU, that perform at performance of actual mid range GPU... On other hand they are too expensive new...
#6165826
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ah... sh... here we go again...
#6165863
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rl66:

Also Gaming GPU is weird right now, as an exemple we have sold zero NVidia GPU and few AMD since month... (i think the zero GPU is mostly due to the "f*ck you, gamer" politic during mining craze... ) Everyone buy 2nd hand previous gen high end GPU, at actual price of entry level's GPU, that perform at performance of actual mid range GPU... On other hand they are too expensive new...
Pretty weird observation when Steam Hardware Survey show massive adoption for rtx4000 (mostly on laptop), Nvidia Q2 also showed strong sale in gaming division and John Peddie said Nvidia has shipped 85% of dGPU in Q2
#6166282
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If they cannot package it for server ai overlords ....ahem I mean farms , then logic have it they will have left overs to throw at gamers ...on the other hand Nvidia seems dead set to normalize the higher GPU prices
#6166285
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Krizby:

Pretty weird observation when Steam Hardware Survey show massive adoption for rtx4000 (mostly on laptop), Nvidia Q2 also showed strong sale in gaming division and John Peddie said Nvidia has shipped 85% of dGPU in Q2
Don't put too much stock in the survey, it's a random sample. And we have no idea how it works because Valve keeps it a secret.
#6166422
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Amaze:

Don't put too much stock in the survey, it's a random sample. And we have no idea how it works because Valve keeps it a secret.
Pretty sure most peoples conclusion is it works fine when it says what they want to hear, and is broken when it says something they disagree with.
#6166737
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Krizby:

Pretty weird observation when Steam Hardware Survey show massive adoption for rtx4000 (mostly on laptop), Nvidia Q2 also showed strong sale in gaming division and John Peddie said Nvidia has shipped 85% of dGPU in Q2
It isn't the 1st time that Steam is wrong with real world... (huge adoption of RTX 3080 and 3090 when there was a worldwide shortage due to mining, and no one could put a hand on it, as an exemple) If steam survey were acurate we would know it lol
#6166738
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rl66:

It isn't the 1st time that Steam is wrong with real world... (huge adoption of RTX 3080 and 3090 when there was a worldwide shortage due to mining, and no one could put a hand on it, as an exemple) If steam survey were acurate we would know it lol
So Steam Survey is wrong, John Peddie research is wrong, Nvidia financial report is wrong, what statistics would be the correct then? your own PC shop?
#6166741
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Dribble:

Pretty sure most peoples conclusion is it works fine when it says what they want to hear, and is broken when it says something they disagree with.
Nope, even if the result goes in your way, never ever take Steam as reference 🙂 (it has never been acurate since the 1st time they have used it)
#6166742
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Steam Survey is still miles better indication than any single PC retailer like Mindfactory for example 🙄
#6166754
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Krizby:

So Steam Survey is wrong, John Peddie research is wrong, Nvidia financial report is wrong, what statistics would be the correct then? your own PC shop?
Nope: experience, the shop where i do extra work (waiting my wife to be retired too 🙂 ), the brand contact i have since last millenium (hardware and software), and my financial build... Also it is not wrong, it is not acurate ( by nature as Steam survey lol), and/or have to be nuanced (as NVidia financial report (but i still kept NV in my pocket) ). Things are not right or wrong, everything is always nuanced
#6166759
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NewTRUMP Order:

For you younger people this would be a sign to find some established AI dividend stock and buy some. This is the new internet if you will.
I'm more of a Boglehead Index Fund kinda guy 😉 Market knows everything I do after all, active individual stock picking is a tough road seems to me. Beating the market over the long term is hard and if AI stocks are on the up-and-up their portion of the market cap weighted/broad market index should increase rather naturally no? I'm just glad there are cheap Target Date Funds from Schwab and Vanguard (etc) for my 401K. Makes my life 100 times easier and I then I don't stress over it.
#6166768
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rl66:

Nope: experience, the shop where i do extra work (waiting my wife to be retired too 🙂 ), the brand contact i have since last millenium (hardware and software), and my financial build... Also it is not wrong, it is not acurate ( by nature as Steam survey lol), and/or have to be nuanced (as NVidia financial report (but i still kept NV in my pocket) ). Things are not right or wrong, everything is always nuanced
Being nuanced doesn't mean the you can give a total contradictory observation to the given statistics LOL. A quick check and I can see Rue Montgallet (I used to buy PC part there) have 2x more 4080/4090 models than 7900XT/XTX, would be weird something that are not selling to have so many AIB models available....

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