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Guru3D Rig of the Month - November 2019
Intel processor shortages to continue into 2Q19 says ASUS
We've touched the topic a couple of times but it's now confirmed by ASUS as well. With issues on 10nm, Intel is running out of space on 14nm, and they have a lot of processors and chipsets on that node. The fabrication shortage at 14nm means fewer processors fabricated, resulting in processors shortages on a global scale. And that drives up prices.
The current Coffee lake (Core 8000 series) is currently suffering from increased prices, some procs even have risen 40 to 60% in price, overall for the higher end product it's 15 to 25% of an increase. The news on this keeps stacking up and is now confirmed by the CEO of ASUS as well:
Asustek Computer has seen its shipments to the DIY sector and related motherboards affected by Intel's supply strategy for CPUs, with the prospects that the CPU shortages, particularly those for desktop PCs, will continue into the second quarter of 2019, according to company CEO Jerry Shen. The continued CPU supply crunch, escalating US-China trade disputes, and increasing competition in the notebook segment in Europe have pressed down Asustek's "operational visibility" for the fourth quarter of 2018 to the lowest level of 20% compared to an over 50% seen in previous years, Shen said. Although Intel has pledged to address the supply issues since September and has continued to pour investments to ramp up output from its 10nm process, the tight CPU supplies have not been solved as the US chipmaker has given the priority to the production of high-end Xeon and Core series CPUs, instead of CPUs for the entry-level or other consumer models, Shen indicated. However, with Intel maintaining its shipments of CPUs to the server and gaming PC sectors, Asustek's gaming PC business has seen little impact from the CPU shortfalls, Shen noted.
Intel already moved chipset fabrication of for example the H310C chipset back to 22nm, just to free up space at 14nm. Intel also outsourced production towards TSMC. 14nm Xeons and respective chipsets are facing shortages as well. Basically the shortages are not solely the effect of issues on the 10nm node, worldwide higher demand for chips is the main cause, and in fact maybe even a luxury problem for Intel. Intel also has extended desktop processors in 14nm, for example, the pending Core 9000 series will also be based on the very same 14nm fabrication node. Intel is simply sitting at this 14nm process longer than it expected.
We mentioned this before, this all is still good news for Intel, as they fabricate chips and there's already sold, to they ooze out products at maximum capacity. It's just on the consumer and business side that due to these shortages, prices jump up.
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m4dn355
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#5607431 Posted on: 11/15/2018 10:47 AM
In the eyes of OEMs and vast majority of consumers all CPUs are belong to intel. . .
I cant see how there is a shortage now that Intel is even less competitive than it used to be in the past and there are plenty of ryzen CPU's available at much better prices.
In the eyes of OEMs and vast majority of consumers all CPUs are belong to intel. . .
umeng2002
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#5607433 Posted on: 11/15/2018 10:52 AM
"Shortages" keeping their prices up just when AMD starts being competitive or even beating them... sounds fishy.
"Shortages" keeping their prices up just when AMD starts being competitive or even beating them... sounds fishy.
Noisiv
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#5607436 Posted on: 11/15/2018 11:03 AM
One would think some of that demand increase for high-margin large-die Core and Xeon CPUs would spill over to AMD. Yet...
OTOH numbers don't lie.
(Q3 2018 Financial results)
Are you implying that shortages are artificial, or even worse - a complete lie?
That on top of Intel losing market share to AMD, Intel is hellbent on purposely losing even more market by jacking up prices and withholding their products?
Where is the logic in that?
One would think some of that demand increase for high-margin large-die Core and Xeon CPUs would spill over to AMD. Yet...
OTOH numbers don't lie.
(Q3 2018 Financial results)
"Shortages" keeping their prices up just when AMD starts being competitive or even beating them... sounds fishy.
Are you implying that shortages are artificial, or even worse - a complete lie?
That on top of Intel losing market share to AMD, Intel is hellbent on purposely losing even more market by jacking up prices and withholding their products?
Where is the logic in that?
Kaarme
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#5607448 Posted on: 11/15/2018 11:54 AM
How does TSMC have so much capacity that now they are even manufacturing for Intel as well? It's weird Intel can't handle even its own products while TSMC can handle God only knows how many, including the likes of Apple, Nvidia, and newest AMD ones.
How does TSMC have so much capacity that now they are even manufacturing for Intel as well? It's weird Intel can't handle even its own products while TSMC can handle God only knows how many, including the likes of Apple, Nvidia, and newest AMD ones.
BLEH!
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#5607467 Posted on: 11/15/2018 12:57 PM
Fingers crossed this is a chance for AMD to catch up...
Fingers crossed this is a chance for AMD to catch up...
D3M1G0D
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#5607479 Posted on: 11/15/2018 01:34 PM
TSMC has a working 7nm process though. Intel probably thought they'd have 10nm working by now so didn't invest into expanding their 14nm fabs. They're also fabbing chips for Apple and the 300-series chipsets were also produced on 14nm.
In short, it comes down to 10nm. If they knew that they'd be on 14nm for this long then I'm sure they'd have invested more into it.
How does TSMC have so much capacity that now they are even manufacturing for Intel as well? It's weird Intel can't handle even its own products while TSMC can handle God only knows how many, including the likes of Apple, Nvidia, and newest AMD ones.
TSMC has a working 7nm process though. Intel probably thought they'd have 10nm working by now so didn't invest into expanding their 14nm fabs. They're also fabbing chips for Apple and the 300-series chipsets were also produced on 14nm.
In short, it comes down to 10nm. If they knew that they'd be on 14nm for this long then I'm sure they'd have invested more into it.
Embra
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#5607493 Posted on: 11/15/2018 02:04 PM
Not having 10 nm working and going gang busters is really going to hurt them.
AMD also most went under from delays and missed expectations from fabs, not that Intel is in that sort of trouble.
Not having 10 nm working and going gang busters is really going to hurt them.
AMD also most went under from delays and missed expectations from fabs, not that Intel is in that sort of trouble.
waltc3
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#5607513 Posted on: 11/15/2018 02:40 PM
It would appear that while AMD is skipping 10nm and going straight to 7nm, that Intel has already spent lots of money and time trying for 10nm. Retooling fabs for new production processes is hugely expensive and excessively time consuming. Intel management is nothing if not stubborn--it took Intel many years to realize they weren't going to succeed at running AMD out of business, after all--you almost can't blame the company for that sort of thing, considering how successfully Intel ran every other x86 cpu manufacturer out of business with the same kind of tactics. So Intel apparently feels it has put too much into 10nm to abandon it just yet. We shall see...
It would appear that while AMD is skipping 10nm and going straight to 7nm, that Intel has already spent lots of money and time trying for 10nm. Retooling fabs for new production processes is hugely expensive and excessively time consuming. Intel management is nothing if not stubborn--it took Intel many years to realize they weren't going to succeed at running AMD out of business, after all--you almost can't blame the company for that sort of thing, considering how successfully Intel ran every other x86 cpu manufacturer out of business with the same kind of tactics. So Intel apparently feels it has put too much into 10nm to abandon it just yet. We shall see...
NewTRUMP Order
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#5607520 Posted on: 11/15/2018 02:57 PM
Their "shortage" is a well orchestrated supply and demand control. So they won't have a glut of 14nm stock to move when they finally go to 10nm market. Plus with a perceived shortage of Intel cpu's, their 10nm cpu's will fly off the shelves.
Their "shortage" is a well orchestrated supply and demand control. So they won't have a glut of 14nm stock to move when they finally go to 10nm market. Plus with a perceived shortage of Intel cpu's, their 10nm cpu's will fly off the shelves.
H83
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#5607537 Posted on: 11/15/2018 03:35 PM
Servers demand is the answer. There are a lot of companies that are upgrading their servers and there are others who just can´t get their hands on enough CPUs for their servers, companies like Google, Facebook and so on. Intel simply can´t cope with the huge server demand they have right now. Great chance for AMD to shine and make lots of money.
I cant see how there is a shortage now that Intel is even less competitive than it used to be in the past and there are plenty of ryzen CPU's available at much better prices.
Servers demand is the answer. There are a lot of companies that are upgrading their servers and there are others who just can´t get their hands on enough CPUs for their servers, companies like Google, Facebook and so on. Intel simply can´t cope with the huge server demand they have right now. Great chance for AMD to shine and make lots of money.
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#5607543 Posted on: 11/15/2018 03:49 PM
Here's what I don't get:
To my knowledge, there are still plenty of Skylake and Kaby Lake models in stock. They have pretty much the same IPC as 8th and 9th gen parts. If something with the proper core count is still in stock, why aren't people just buying those instead?
I understand the point made here, but in another perspective, that's bad news for Intel in the sense that someone looking to make a new purchase now won't be able to, and is forced to go to a competitor (not necessarily AMD). In other words, Intel might have the benefit of selling everything they make, but there are also potential sales they won't be making either.
Here's what I don't get:
To my knowledge, there are still plenty of Skylake and Kaby Lake models in stock. They have pretty much the same IPC as 8th and 9th gen parts. If something with the proper core count is still in stock, why aren't people just buying those instead?
We mentioned this before, this all is still good news for Intel, as they fabricate chips and there's already sold, to they ooze out products at maximum capacity. It's just on the consumer and business side that due to these shortages, prices jump up.
I understand the point made here, but in another perspective, that's bad news for Intel in the sense that someone looking to make a new purchase now won't be able to, and is forced to go to a competitor (not necessarily AMD). In other words, Intel might have the benefit of selling everything they make, but there are also potential sales they won't be making either.
Embra
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#5607551 Posted on: 11/15/2018 04:02 PM
@schmidtbag : If Intel was not so stubborn about there pricing, the would be selling the "older" cpus.
A slight discount would sell them I think.
@schmidtbag : If Intel was not so stubborn about there pricing, the would be selling the "older" cpus.
A slight discount would sell them I think.
schmidtbag
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#5607557 Posted on: 11/15/2018 04:07 PM
@schmidtbag : If Intel was not so stubborn about there pricing, the would be selling the "older" cpus.
A slight discount would sell them I think.
Very good point - it baffles me how little they change their prices over the years. But, even though something as old as a 4770K is still being sold for around its original MSRP, I think the motherboards have come down in price, the RAM is cheaper, and the performance is still good by today's standards.
@schmidtbag : If Intel was not so stubborn about there pricing, the would be selling the "older" cpus.
A slight discount would sell them I think.
Very good point - it baffles me how little they change their prices over the years. But, even though something as old as a 4770K is still being sold for around its original MSRP, I think the motherboards have come down in price, the RAM is cheaper, and the performance is still good by today's standards.
H83
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#5607559 Posted on: 11/15/2018 04:10 PM
Here's what I don't get:
To my knowledge, there are still plenty of Skylake and Kaby Lake models in stock. They have pretty much the same IPC as 8th and 9th gen parts. If something with the proper core count is still in stock, why aren't people just buying those instead?
I understand the point made here, but in another perspective, that's bad news for Intel in the sense that someone looking to make a new purchase now won't be able to, and is forced to go to a competitor (not necessarily AMD). In other words, Intel might have the benefit of selling everything they make, but there are also potential sales they won't be making either.
Well Intel can´t have it all...
Here's what I don't get:
To my knowledge, there are still plenty of Skylake and Kaby Lake models in stock. They have pretty much the same IPC as 8th and 9th gen parts. If something with the proper core count is still in stock, why aren't people just buying those instead?
I understand the point made here, but in another perspective, that's bad news for Intel in the sense that someone looking to make a new purchase now won't be able to, and is forced to go to a competitor (not necessarily AMD). In other words, Intel might have the benefit of selling everything they make, but there are also potential sales they won't be making either.
Well Intel can´t have it all...
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I cant see how there is a shortage now that Intel is even less competitive than it used to be in the past and there are plenty of ryzen CPU's available at much better prices.