AMD Could take Back 30% of the Processor Market

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austin865a:

I'm still waiting for AMD to make a CPU that plays nice in harsh and industrial environments. Most of the higher end low voltage Intel CPU are still king in this area
really??? AMD sales of SoC are bonkers. what type of industrial application do you speak of? and are they more than Intel Atom processors?
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while i had the soapbox out... i was an Intel fanboy for over twenty years. i loved them so much i skimped and saved to buy their stock (less expensive then, but i was poorer). i even wanted them to build a football stadium (or have naming rights) and call it "Pentium Place". i bought every single generation of HEDT processor up to the ridiculous current cpus. i loved the Q666 (or variants) so much i kept using that processor, the humble first Intel quad-core (Core Duo 2) moving it from system to system (down the pecking order) until it finally died. so i'm not filled with happiness over their current state and i can say i saw this coming. the fact is Intel has so much power and money that this can be solved in short-order, but it will not be. that would involve accountability and there are too many bonuses paid out in marketing. it's one thing to inspire your marketing department, it's another for that marketing department to have the power. what could've been "spitballing" is now a hard target, rinse and repeat. yikes but Lisa Su is my woman. she can fix just about anything that has an engineering solution and keep things civil during the entire process with everyone's involvement. so now, my only Intel is a nice Kaby Lake laptop. i'm loving my Threadripper 2950x, and my Ryzen 7 2700 (nonX). my threadripper 1950x is gracing my nephew's streaming/editing rig. and i'm loving it and crushing every task i have
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austin865a:

I'm not talking about SOC and other tinny stuff. I'm, talking about systems that control banks of welding robots, large scale CNC and CAD deployments, system that get used in a desert with room temps over 100f. As far as I know all the major industrial/harsh interment computer supplier don't sell any AMD systems. IEI, DFI, Advantech do not support AMD anymore as far as I know. I do believe AAEON still supports AMD products, Not sure about Siemens.
ok you're right
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+1 to this comment. 2600k butchered by recent updates due to intel patches. I mean I was debating an upgrade anyway, but avoiding further meltdown and spectre liabilities is high on my next cpu list of features. One of the other reasons why ryzen 2 seems hopeful. I wonder if intel will address this architecture issue for the 9000 series due out now.
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I just noticed Intel and AMDs stock are getting pretty close to eachother, only a 10ish dollar difference....
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austin865a:

I'm not talking about SOC and other tinny stuff. I'm, talking about systems that control banks of welding robots, large scale CNC and CAD deployments, system that get used in a desert with room temps over 100f. As far as I know all the major industrial/harsh interment computer supplier don't sell any AMD systems. IEI, DFI, Advantech do not support AMD anymore as far as I know. I do believe AAEON still supports AMD products, Not sure about Siemens.
I don't have any problem with my 1800x on cad based or rendering based programs as I torture the system every day, even in as high as 40 C room temperature, CPU didn't pass 78C on 8core 16 TH 100% load with stock cooler, even if i detach the front and upper dust filter temps would get 5C lower, so i think it would survive pretty easy on industrial enviroments.
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Aura89:

I just noticed Intel and AMDs stock are getting pretty close to eachother, only a 10ish dollar difference....
Means nothing. Intel dwarfs AMD in outstanding shares and market cap.
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Any info about yelds rate vs die size on 7nm/10nm? Can it be that Intel have troubles with it's 10nm mainly because their monolithic die designs? and that why the yields rate for processors with 6 core plus is low and not profitable in competitive market? Also Intel has to also use iGPU that makes the Die even bigger- unlike AMD's Ryzen that wen from begging with MCM design to solve 7nm low yield problems. For example- only 10nm CPU that Intel released is very small and without integrated graphics: https://ark.intel.com/products/136863/Intel-Core-i3-8121U-Processor-4M-Cache-up-to-3_20-GHz
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austin865a:

Come back in 10 to 20 years. It will likely be dead in the water. Also most industrial enviroments can't power the system down to clean out dust and so on. A system being used at home for cad and industrial like work is not quite the same. Its more akin to the stresses of a minning system
I'm not really sure what you're getting at. I run computing apps on my systems and never encountered any issues (my Threadripper 1950X has been running at 100% load around the clock for more than a year). From what I can tell, AMD CPUs are just as robust as Intel CPUs.
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Aura89:

I just noticed Intel and AMDs stock are getting pretty close to eachother, only a 10ish dollar difference....
yup, totally different trajectories on stock price though. AMD has been with a bullet, Intel has been hovering
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HWgeek:

Any info about yelds rate vs die size on 7nm/10nm? Can it be that Intel have troubles with it's 10nm mainly because their monolithic die designs? and that why the yields rate for processors with 6 core plus is low and not profitable in competitive market? Also Intel has to also use iGPU that makes the Die even bigger- unlike AMD's Ryzen that wen from begging with MCM design to solve 7nm low yield problems. For example- only 10nm CPU that Intel released is very small and without integrated graphics: https://ark.intel.com/products/136863/Intel-Core-i3-8121U-Processor-4M-Cache-up-to-3_20-GHz
good point and you may very well be onto something. both Intel and Nvidia have been clinging to massive "brute force" dies that leave no space for manufacturing wiggle room... and everyone knows Moore's Law is dead. this is exactly why AMD went scalable on all of their IC design for gpu and cpu. the wafer yields are astronomical by comparison. and it's how AMD outperforms Nvidia on the stock market despite Nvidia's far larger sales of gpu (at lower yields and profits). this will be fixed (eventually) as a closer approximation of "infinity fabric" comes online at Intel and Nvidia. a lot of this is "rocket science" excepting the basic function of businesses.
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yeah Austin, Qualcomm is going for that market with a vengeance (and 7nm) so their heat/power equation is the best option available with their new Snapdragon able to run all versions of windows as well as an I-5 ( but with HT)
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austin865a:

1 year =/= 10 years. Most IPC systems get used for at lest 10 years before replacing. There is a good reason almost no major company that makes IPC systems use AMD in there full size/scale systems anymore.
I also have a Athlon II X4 system that's still working. I really have no idea where you get the idea that AMD CPUs do worse in "high heat" situations. Even during the summer heat, my AMD systems have ran well (they downclock appropriately and are rock solid).
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Ditto. If there is one thing I associate with AMD hardware it's stability. All of it has lived long enough to become obsolete so far.
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tunejunky:

good point and you may very well be onto something. both Intel and Nvidia have been clinging to massive "brute force" dies that leave no space for manufacturing wiggle room... and everyone knows Moore's Law is dead. this is exactly why AMD went scalable on all of their IC design for gpu and cpu. the wafer yields are astronomical by comparison. and it's how AMD outperforms Nvidia on the stock market despite Nvidia's far larger sales of gpu (at lower yields and profits). this will be fixed (eventually) as a closer approximation of "infinity fabric" comes online at Intel and Nvidia. a lot of this is "rocket science" excepting the basic function of businesses.
Also as we have seen the last 10 years, we all know that Intel Marketing prefers spending $$$$ on new Fabs and just manufacturing almost the same design at improved lithography - and market them as "New" CPU. So because of this laziness- Marketing department just wanted to produce their same "up-to 28 cores" die on 10nm and that why they got in trouble.
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this would be great, Intel need to come to realization they need to stop playing games and thinking there cpu are untouchable performance wise, which was true for long time then ryzen came along, STP wise Intel cpu are still king but not by much at this point, multi core and performance vs cost AMD is for not much performance difference vs Intel but Intel still trying to push the price premium If I make new PC which at this point I might not cause prices of thing dram gpu have gone stupid, but hey SSD price droped. I will go AMD simply cause core vs price there is not much diffrence vs intel and STP on AMD chip is good place now and STP should not matter whole lot going forward
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austin865a:

Come back in 10 to 20 years. It will likely be dead in the water. Also most industrial enviroments can't power the system down to clean out dust and so on. A system being used at home for cad and industrial like work is not quite the same. Its more akin to the stresses of a minning system
If it's gonna be that dusty, it doesn't matter if it's an AMD or Intel system, computers and dust don't agree and maybe never will. I'm using Computers for 20 years now and i had different companies products and never an Intel or AMD products failed me as I use my computers for CG designing and Rendering also Gaming.
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Desktop and motherboard vendors including Asustek Computer, Micro-Star International (MSI), Gigabyte Technology and ASRock have ramped up production and shipments of devices fitted with AMD processors, driving up the chipmaker's share of the desktop processor market to over 20% in the third quarter. The company is very likely to see the figure further rebound to the level of 30% again.
The latest numbers i've been able to find are from Mercury Research Group and they are from 2H 2018 and put AMD's desktop CPU market share at 12.3%, which was up from 12.1% the previous quarter. Mercury Research even went and commented the claims of 20% in Q3 and 30% by the end of Q4. They said the following...
"... for a 30 percent AMD desktop share to happen in Q4, AMD's volumes would need to either be 250 percent higher in the quarter than they were last year, or Intel's shipments would need to decline 65 percent, or some combination of the two. Since 2000, the largest on-year decline Intel has experienced for any quarter was -24 percent, and the largest on-year increase AMD has experienced was +57 percent. If somehow moves at these historic extremes simultaneously happened in Q4, AMD's share would fall in the low 20 percent range, well short of 30 percent. Should a 30 percent AMD share materialize next quarter, it would be an unprecedented statistical outlier within the history of the processor market and carry with it far-reaching consequences."
So i think the first half of the article can be chalked up as being 'fake news'. Its a shame that 'journalists' continue to report their hopes and dreams as facts because people actually believe it, and quite often use that information to make serious financial decisions such as buying stock. I urge anyone considering the purchase of stock to do your homework and make sure these decisions are made based on accurate information. ... as for the second half of the article...
In terms of server processor market, AMD's EPYC 7000 series processors have been well adopted by Mellanox and Samsung Electronics since their launch in June 2017, and the firm's expanded EPYC series have also won robust support from heavyweight clients including Microsoft, Baidu, Dell, HP and Supermicro, as well as Taiwan's Inventec, Wistron, Asustek, and Gigabyte. It is expected that the EPYC series sever processors will help AMD win a 5% share of the global x86 server platform market by the end of 2018, which has been 99% controlled by Intel. AMD's latest EPYC processor, codenamed Rome and adopting Zen2 architecture, is slated for volume production in 2019 using 7nm process at TSMC after the delivery of samplings by the end of 2018.
There's that made up 5% number again. Whey do people keep repeating that crap? Those are market predictions announced by AMD. They have no basis in reality. AMD's server CPU share increased to 1.3% in 2Q18, up from 1% in the prior quarter and 0.5% from this time a year ago. AMD would have to increase its server chip sales by over 380% in order to have 5% of the market. Sorry to break people's hearts, but it's just not gonna happen. I was just reading an article on seekingalpha.com regarding CPU marketshare and whether AMD is a good investment and the author made a comment which sums things up quite well. They said the following:
Currently we are seeing herd behavior in AMD. Whichever message board we look at, any negative comment on AMD is met with strong condemnation. AMD is a cult stock.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/3112371-adaveinus2/5221181-amds-q3-2018-earnings-will-bad-stock-price Sounds about right.
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a "cult stock" that's been the top performer in the S&P 500. i bought AMD stock at their low point (re-organizing and selling GloFlo) and i've already had a 100% ROI do as you will, but look into the fundamentals of each business before you invest. the fundamentals of AMD's business are amongst the strongest in the tech industry. you will always find naysayers to anything, but as the saying goes "money talks and BS walks" same with Intel, despite their problems and me giving them hell i've been invested with them since 1988, and Nvidia since 2000.
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@Andrew LB : Many of those who make statistics misuse their power to manipulate stock market. They did learn that they have Power, and they are using it.