Recent reports by Taiwan-based Commercial Times, sourced from TrendForce, indicate that analysts from the investment bank Goldman Sachs have pointed towards a possible uptick in Intel's outsourcing to TSMC, a development that could impact Intel's operational direction.

Goldman Sachs' analysis delineates estimated values for Intel's outsourcing orders for 2024 and 2025, at $18.6 billion and $19.4 billion, respectively. Although it's unlikely for Intel to outsource its entire product range, data suggests that TSMC might handle orders worth approximately $5.6 billion in 2024 and around $9.7 billion in 2025.

From H2 2023 onwards, a considerable portion of Intel's client PC products will adopt a multi-chiplet architecture, integrating both internally produced and externally sourced chiplets. With Intel's intended ramp-up in chiplet production, the probability leans towards TSMC being a key manufacturer of these additional companion chiplets. Adopting this modus operandi could help maintain Intel's significant profit margins across its product spectrum. Nonetheless, given that this information originates from a third party, a judicious approach to these projections is advisable.

Foreseeing Intel's manufacturing strategy for 2024–2025 remains intricate, especially since contracts for these years appear to be set. Intel's decision to potentially harness TSMC's production capabilities is likely rooted in strategic considerations.

If the information from Commercial Times holds, Intel's engagements might represent about 6.4% of TSMC's annual revenue in 2024 and around 9.4% in 2025. However, it's pivotal to note that these figures haven't been confirmed by either Intel or TSMC.

Intel's Potential Outsourcing Increase to TSMC: Analyst Insights