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28nm the end of Moore's Law?
The 28nm process is actually the last node of Moore's Law according to EE Times. The site argues that we can continue to make smaller transistors and pack more of them into the same size die, but can't continue to reduce the cost with current technology. Therefore, EE Times claims 28nm will be the most cost-efficient process node for many years to come.
Beyond this point, we can continue to make smaller transistors and pack more of them into the same size die, but we cannot continue to reduce the cost. In most cases, in fact, the same SoC will actually have a higher cost!
The famous Moore's Law was presented as an observation by Moore in his 1965 Electronics paper "The future of integrated electronics," in which he said:
The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years.
Clearly, Moore's Law is about "The complexity for minimum component costs," and the minimum component cost will be at the 28nm node for many years, as we will detail in the remainder of this blog.
BLEH!
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Senior Member
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#4788554 Posted on: 03/25/2014 03:06 PM
We really need to be looking at other materials. They do exist.
We really need to be looking at other materials. They do exist.
schmidtbag
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Senior Member
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#4788608 Posted on: 03/25/2014 05:09 PM
True, but in the meantime, companies like AMD/TSMC can finally catch up.
On the other hand, intel obviously has the money to make a factory to go the next size smaller, the problem is will they make a product that makes such a die shrink worth doing? If you already own an i7 or an overclocked i5, it's getting increasingly harder to justify an upgrade.
We really need to be looking at other materials. They do exist.
True, but in the meantime, companies like AMD/TSMC can finally catch up.
On the other hand, intel obviously has the money to make a factory to go the next size smaller, the problem is will they make a product that makes such a die shrink worth doing? If you already own an i7 or an overclocked i5, it's getting increasingly harder to justify an upgrade.
nicugoalkeper
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Senior Member
Posts: 896
Joined: 2006-04-13
#4788646 Posted on: 03/25/2014 06:20 PM
True, but in the meantime, companies like AMD/TSMC can finally catch up.
...
Only if Intel stops.
True, but in the meantime, companies like AMD/TSMC can finally catch up.
...
Only if Intel stops.
FerCam™
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Senior Member
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Joined: 2005-10-08
#4788652 Posted on: 03/25/2014 06:28 PM
This is really interesting, it's when things like this happen that revolutionary technologies appear. In worst case scenario we will start to see true process optimisation.
This is really interesting, it's when things like this happen that revolutionary technologies appear. In worst case scenario we will start to see true process optimisation.
Click here to post a comment for this news story on the message forum.
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Interesting stuff!
I'm used to stories like this followed by a technology breakthrough allowing Moores Law to continue for a few more years but perhaps we reall are approaching a significant point in chip production.
It sounds like one of the main problems is the transistor leakage in current designs preventing mass production of smaller than 28nm wafers, hopefully they can solve these production issues.