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28nm the end of Moore's Law?
The 28nm process is actually the last node of Moore's Law according to EE Times. The site argues that we can continue to make smaller transistors and pack more of them into the same size die, but can't continue to reduce the cost with current technology. Therefore, EE Times claims 28nm will be the most cost-efficient process node for many years to come.
Beyond this point, we can continue to make smaller transistors and pack more of them into the same size die, but we cannot continue to reduce the cost. In most cases, in fact, the same SoC will actually have a higher cost!
The famous Moore's Law was presented as an observation by Moore in his 1965 Electronics paper "The future of integrated electronics," in which he said:
The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years.
Clearly, Moore's Law is about "The complexity for minimum component costs," and the minimum component cost will be at the 28nm node for many years, as we will detail in the remainder of this blog.
BLEH!
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#4788554 Posted on: 03/25/2014 03:06 PM
We really need to be looking at other materials. They do exist.
We really need to be looking at other materials. They do exist.
schmidtbag
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#4788608 Posted on: 03/25/2014 05:09 PM
True, but in the meantime, companies like AMD/TSMC can finally catch up.
On the other hand, intel obviously has the money to make a factory to go the next size smaller, the problem is will they make a product that makes such a die shrink worth doing? If you already own an i7 or an overclocked i5, it's getting increasingly harder to justify an upgrade.
We really need to be looking at other materials. They do exist.
True, but in the meantime, companies like AMD/TSMC can finally catch up.
On the other hand, intel obviously has the money to make a factory to go the next size smaller, the problem is will they make a product that makes such a die shrink worth doing? If you already own an i7 or an overclocked i5, it's getting increasingly harder to justify an upgrade.
nicugoalkeper
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#4788646 Posted on: 03/25/2014 06:20 PM
True, but in the meantime, companies like AMD/TSMC can finally catch up.
...
Only if Intel stops.
True, but in the meantime, companies like AMD/TSMC can finally catch up.
...
Only if Intel stops.
FerCam™
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#4788652 Posted on: 03/25/2014 06:28 PM
This is really interesting, it's when things like this happen that revolutionary technologies appear. In worst case scenario we will start to see true process optimisation.
This is really interesting, it's when things like this happen that revolutionary technologies appear. In worst case scenario we will start to see true process optimisation.
k3vst3r
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#4788657 Posted on: 03/25/2014 06:33 PM
14nm broadwell cpu's will be here end of the year
14nm broadwell cpu's will be here end of the year
kenoh
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#4790291 Posted on: 03/28/2014 02:09 AM
14nm broadwell cpu's will be here end of the year
There not actually 14nm, there closer to 20nm!
dk_lightning
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#4790355 Posted on: 03/28/2014 05:36 AM
Hang on, AFAIK the law states that transistor count/cpu power will double every, what 18 months or so? Not that die size will shrink.
Hang on, AFAIK the law states that transistor count/cpu power will double every, what 18 months or so? Not that die size will shrink.
Cyberdyne
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#4790390 Posted on: 03/28/2014 08:47 AM
I'm a little confused. Unless I'm missing something, for AMD/Intel CPU's there is no 28nm CPU's. The current standard is 22nm. Small then 28nm, and I see no indication of that size being non-cost effective.
I'm a little confused. Unless I'm missing something, for AMD/Intel CPU's there is no 28nm CPU's. The current standard is 22nm. Small then 28nm, and I see no indication of that size being non-cost effective.
sverek
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#4790403 Posted on: 03/28/2014 09:18 AM
Current GPUs are 28nm (AMD 200 series, NVIDIA 700 series).
Next is 20nm (Maxwell and AMD Pirate Islands).
Current Intel CPUs are 22 nm, Broadwell will be 14nm.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_Tick-Tock
and see this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Die_shrink
Current GPUs are 28nm (AMD 200 series, NVIDIA 700 series).
Next is 20nm (Maxwell and AMD Pirate Islands).
Current Intel CPUs are 22 nm, Broadwell will be 14nm.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_Tick-Tock
and see this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Die_shrink
pbvider
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#4790408 Posted on: 03/28/2014 09:39 AM
^^ We don`t know if Maxwell or Pirate Islands will be on 20nm,but we know that Pascal will be 20nm.
^^ We don`t know if Maxwell or Pirate Islands will be on 20nm,but we know that Pascal will be 20nm.
BLEH!
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#4790518 Posted on: 03/28/2014 03:36 PM
Is Intel's 22 nm ACTUALLY 22 nm?
Is Intel's 22 nm ACTUALLY 22 nm?
Cyberdyne
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#4790673 Posted on: 03/28/2014 07:48 PM
Current GPUs are 28nm (AMD 200 series, NVIDIA 700 series).
Next is 20nm (Maxwell and AMD Pirate Islands).
Current Intel CPUs are 22 nm, Broadwell will be 14nm.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_Tick-Tock
and see this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Die_shrink
I know GPU's are. But when we think of the tick-tock die shrink and moores law, we think of CPU's. The 22nm CPU's have been doing just fine. I'm just trying to understand the article better. Unless it's like BLEH says and it's all a lie. IDK.
Current GPUs are 28nm (AMD 200 series, NVIDIA 700 series).
Next is 20nm (Maxwell and AMD Pirate Islands).
Current Intel CPUs are 22 nm, Broadwell will be 14nm.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_Tick-Tock
and see this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Die_shrink
I know GPU's are. But when we think of the tick-tock die shrink and moores law, we think of CPU's. The 22nm CPU's have been doing just fine. I'm just trying to understand the article better. Unless it's like BLEH says and it's all a lie. IDK.
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#4790680 Posted on: 03/28/2014 07:58 PM
Intel made 22nm cost effective by moving to 3D Tri-Gate/FinFET transistor technology.
AMD is moving to that with both Global Foundries & TSMC at 16/14nm.
They need to move to 450mm wafers to drive costs down. Nvidia has been asking for this for a while (http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1261542).
It's becoming more and more costly to shrink these things.
Edit: You guys also have to understand that Intel is like god mode of semiconductor manufacturing. They don't even start using new nodes in mass production till they have 90%+ yields. TSMC on the other hand chargers customers by the wafer, regardless of the yield. Honestly I'm surprised AMD has been able to keep it's CPU's so price competitive for so long, Intel's manufacturing is like light years ahead.
That TSMC pricing structure is also the reason why NVIDA prices their chips so high (like the new Titan Z). GK110 is huge and with that comes a higher chance to get a bad chip. Nvidia is paying the same price regardless of what comes out at the end.
Intel made 22nm cost effective by moving to 3D Tri-Gate/FinFET transistor technology.
AMD is moving to that with both Global Foundries & TSMC at 16/14nm.
They need to move to 450mm wafers to drive costs down. Nvidia has been asking for this for a while (http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1261542).
It's becoming more and more costly to shrink these things.
Edit: You guys also have to understand that Intel is like god mode of semiconductor manufacturing. They don't even start using new nodes in mass production till they have 90%+ yields. TSMC on the other hand chargers customers by the wafer, regardless of the yield. Honestly I'm surprised AMD has been able to keep it's CPU's so price competitive for so long, Intel's manufacturing is like light years ahead.
That TSMC pricing structure is also the reason why NVIDA prices their chips so high (like the new Titan Z). GK110 is huge and with that comes a higher chance to get a bad chip. Nvidia is paying the same price regardless of what comes out at the end.
Reddoguk
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#4790910 Posted on: 03/29/2014 02:54 AM
I think the law could stand a lot, lot longer. The question is will we be able to afford it.
They could do it but i doubt whether the consumer will ever see it in home PC's.
I think the law could stand a lot, lot longer. The question is will we be able to afford it.
They could do it but i doubt whether the consumer will ever see it in home PC's.
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Interesting stuff!
I'm used to stories like this followed by a technology breakthrough allowing Moores Law to continue for a few more years but perhaps we reall are approaching a significant point in chip production.
It sounds like one of the main problems is the transistor leakage in current designs preventing mass production of smaller than 28nm wafers, hopefully they can solve these production issues.