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Guru3D Rig of the Month - December 2019
Seagate: 18 and 20 TB HDDs by next year, 50 TB drives in 2026
Each time I write about HDD news they seem to have grown exponentially in volume size. During a financial conference call, Seagate slipped that it will be introducing 18 and 20 TB HDDs in 2020, with an aim for 50TB in 2026.
Now I for the life of me cannot figure out why I'd need that much storage space, or find the means to back it all that up at HDDs performance speeds. But man volume-wise, that is impressive. The HDDs are expected to use nine platters. The 18TB versions will still use cmr, or conventional magnetic recording whereas 20 TB models will get hammer-time, eurhm, HAMR (heat-assisted magnetic recording). These ginormous volume sizes pale away by the fact that Seagate spoke of 50 terabytes and presumably larger capacities in 2026.
I'll leave out the ís 'mine is bigger than your puns'.
Sources: Seagate (quarterly figures) , Seeking Alpha, via HWI
Kaarme
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Joined: 2013-03-10
Senior Member
Posts: 1744
Joined: 2013-03-10
#5728541 Posted on: 11/06/2019 05:09 PM
Whereas SSD prices have been steadily coming down, apart from some abnormal periods, HDD prices haven't moved anywhere for a long time. A regular drive (like 6TB, for example) today would cost as much as it did a few years ago. Thus, the bells will soon be tolling for HDDs below the massive drives, like the ones mentioned in the article.
Whereas SSD prices have been steadily coming down, apart from some abnormal periods, HDD prices haven't moved anywhere for a long time. A regular drive (like 6TB, for example) today would cost as much as it did a few years ago. Thus, the bells will soon be tolling for HDDs below the massive drives, like the ones mentioned in the article.
wavetrex
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Senior Member
Posts: 734
Joined: 2008-07-16
#5728553 Posted on: 11/06/2019 05:37 PM
What are you smoking ?
They have come down in price massively in the last 3 years.
I bought my first 8TB hard-disk in Q1 2017 for a "very cheap" 359 Euro (which was down from ~400+ the year before).
I bought my last 8TB hard-disk last month for 138 Euro.
That's 62% freekin' percent reduction !
Obviously outdated 1TB-2TB drives are still going to have a much higher price/capacity ratio, and don't come down in price much (they just tend to vanish from the market when they stop making sense)
p.s.
Prices in US are even lower.
Whereas SSD prices have been steadily coming down, apart from some abnormal periods, HDD prices haven't moved anywhere for a long time.
What are you smoking ?
They have come down in price massively in the last 3 years.
I bought my first 8TB hard-disk in Q1 2017 for a "very cheap" 359 Euro (which was down from ~400+ the year before).
I bought my last 8TB hard-disk last month for 138 Euro.
That's 62% freekin' percent reduction !
Obviously outdated 1TB-2TB drives are still going to have a much higher price/capacity ratio, and don't come down in price much (they just tend to vanish from the market when they stop making sense)
p.s.
Prices in US are even lower.
insp1re2600
Senior Member
Posts: 1062
Joined: 2018-01-03
Senior Member
Posts: 1062
Joined: 2018-01-03
#5728554 Posted on: 11/06/2019 05:38 PM
why 7 year till 50tb?
why 7 year till 50tb?
angelgraves13
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Posts: 1607
Joined: 2014-10-11
Senior Member
Posts: 1607
Joined: 2014-10-11
#5728571 Posted on: 11/06/2019 06:01 PM
I want my 1 PB drive. What's taking so long??
I want my 1 PB drive. What's taking so long??
schmidtbag
Senior Member
Posts: 4632
Joined: 2012-11-10
Senior Member
Posts: 4632
Joined: 2012-11-10
#5728579 Posted on: 11/06/2019 06:13 PM
I've found drives smaller than 1TB don't really change much at all in price, but, I figure that's just because with capacities that low, the only thing you're paying for are the materials and production costs.
Part of me wonders how any drives smaller than 0.5TB will ever be sold. The only way to sell them for a reasonable price is if the manufacturer takes a loss of them.
Whereas SSD prices have been steadily coming down, apart from some abnormal periods, HDD prices haven't moved anywhere for a long time. A regular drive (like 6TB, for example) today would cost as much as it did a few years ago. Thus, the bells will soon be tolling for HDDs below the massive drives, like the ones mentioned in the article.
I've found drives smaller than 1TB don't really change much at all in price, but, I figure that's just because with capacities that low, the only thing you're paying for are the materials and production costs.
Part of me wonders how any drives smaller than 0.5TB will ever be sold. The only way to sell them for a reasonable price is if the manufacturer takes a loss of them.
Venix
Senior Member
Posts: 1036
Joined: 2016-08-01
Senior Member
Posts: 1036
Joined: 2016-08-01
#5728586 Posted on: 11/06/2019 06:25 PM
The 3 tb or lower their price does not change drastically higher capacities though do and fast!
The 3 tb or lower their price does not change drastically higher capacities though do and fast!
Kaarme
Senior Member
Posts: 1744
Joined: 2013-03-10
Senior Member
Posts: 1744
Joined: 2013-03-10
#5728597 Posted on: 11/06/2019 06:43 PM
What are you smoking ?
They have come down in price massively in the last 3 years.
I bought my first 8TB hard-disk in Q1 2017 for a "very cheap" 359 Euro (which was down from ~400+ the year before).
I bought my last 8TB hard-disk last month for 138 Euro.
That's 62% freekin' percent reduction !
Obviously outdated 1TB-2TB drives are still going to have a much higher price/capacity ratio, and don't come down in price much (they just tend to vanish from the market when they stop making sense)
p.s.
Prices in US are even lower.
Eh... I was looking at 6TB prices a few years ago when I was planning to set up a simple two slot NAS, so I became somewhat aware of the prices. Before posting in this thread, I again checked the prices from the same popular domestic store. The price wasn't much different from what I remembered. Based on your post, the prices just haven't changed in my miserable home country, but elsewhere they must have, then. Good for you.
What are you smoking ?
They have come down in price massively in the last 3 years.
I bought my first 8TB hard-disk in Q1 2017 for a "very cheap" 359 Euro (which was down from ~400+ the year before).
I bought my last 8TB hard-disk last month for 138 Euro.
That's 62% freekin' percent reduction !
Obviously outdated 1TB-2TB drives are still going to have a much higher price/capacity ratio, and don't come down in price much (they just tend to vanish from the market when they stop making sense)
p.s.
Prices in US are even lower.
Eh... I was looking at 6TB prices a few years ago when I was planning to set up a simple two slot NAS, so I became somewhat aware of the prices. Before posting in this thread, I again checked the prices from the same popular domestic store. The price wasn't much different from what I remembered. Based on your post, the prices just haven't changed in my miserable home country, but elsewhere they must have, then. Good for you.
Aekold
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Posts: 62
Joined: 2012-12-25
Member
Posts: 62
Joined: 2012-12-25
#5728602 Posted on: 11/06/2019 06:50 PM
I'm sure those future 50 TB drives will be awesome in the right use-case and we need to be moving in this direction, but as Hilbert said, the thought of backing that much data from a single mechanical drive is... scary. That and losing 50 TB of data when one drive bites the dust.
If it were me, I would probably use those 50 TB drives as the backup targets for large RAID arrays (or VM backups). They'd work well in large business clouds as well. Having them as primary storage in any other situation would be a risky business.
I'm sure those future 50 TB drives will be awesome in the right use-case and we need to be moving in this direction, but as Hilbert said, the thought of backing that much data from a single mechanical drive is... scary. That and losing 50 TB of data when one drive bites the dust.
If it were me, I would probably use those 50 TB drives as the backup targets for large RAID arrays (or VM backups). They'd work well in large business clouds as well. Having them as primary storage in any other situation would be a risky business.
fellix
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Posts: 172
Joined: 2005-08-31
Senior Member
Posts: 172
Joined: 2005-08-31
#5728615 Posted on: 11/06/2019 07:18 PM
While the hard drive sizes skyrocket, the I/O performance is not going anywhere up at the same rate. Squeezing in and out so much data through the choke point means such large storage devices will mostly justified in large scalable RAID setups. AFAIK, the fastest 7200RPM SATA drives can sustain ~240MB/s sequential throughput and ~1500 IOPS for random writes.
While the hard drive sizes skyrocket, the I/O performance is not going anywhere up at the same rate. Squeezing in and out so much data through the choke point means such large storage devices will mostly justified in large scalable RAID setups. AFAIK, the fastest 7200RPM SATA drives can sustain ~240MB/s sequential throughput and ~1500 IOPS for random writes.
AndyMutz
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Posts: 304
Joined: 2005-10-21
Senior Member
Posts: 304
Joined: 2005-10-21
#5728668 Posted on: 11/06/2019 08:45 PM
imagine a RAID rebuild with those 50TB disks
-andy-
imagine a RAID rebuild with those 50TB disks
-andy-
Astyanax
Senior Member
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Joined: 2018-03-21
Senior Member
Posts: 4290
Joined: 2018-03-21
#5728681 Posted on: 11/06/2019 09:25 PM
imagine a RAID rebuild with those 50TB disks
-andy-
why imagine?
imagine a RAID rebuild with those 50TB disks
-andy-
why imagine?
TieSKey
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Posts: 128
Joined: 2015-09-26
Senior Member
Posts: 128
Joined: 2015-09-26
#5728708 Posted on: 11/06/2019 10:40 PM
Impressive.
Although I'm reluctant to call exponential to double capacity in 6 years. With a 200Mpbs connection (not yet your world avg speed but absolutely reasonable) we can download ~2Tb per day. Ofc nobody does that but suddenly 50Tb don't feel that big
Impressive.
Although I'm reluctant to call exponential to double capacity in 6 years. With a 200Mpbs connection (not yet your world avg speed but absolutely reasonable) we can download ~2Tb per day. Ofc nobody does that but suddenly 50Tb don't feel that big
wavetrex
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Posts: 734
Joined: 2008-07-16
#5728716 Posted on: 11/06/2019 11:02 PM
Local stores are in most cases ripoffs.
I saw in my old country the same drive which I bought here for from Amazon @ ~140 .... as the equivalent of 270 when converting currency. FFFFFF that !
(it was a promo though, they are now 160, but still, massive difference)
If you have the ability to buy with regional or continental delivery (always check prices on stores like Amazon, Mediamarkt, Cyberport etc... and see if they deliver in your country).
Even with the delivery costs, there's a big chance you'll end up much cheaper.
Set this as your homepage:
https://geizhals.eu/
I again checked the prices from the same popular domestic store. The price wasn't much different from what I remembered. Based on your post, the prices just haven't changed in my miserable home country, but elsewhere they must have, then.
Local stores are in most cases ripoffs.
I saw in my old country the same drive which I bought here for from Amazon @ ~140 .... as the equivalent of 270 when converting currency. FFFFFF that !
(it was a promo though, they are now 160, but still, massive difference)
If you have the ability to buy with regional or continental delivery (always check prices on stores like Amazon, Mediamarkt, Cyberport etc... and see if they deliver in your country).
Even with the delivery costs, there's a big chance you'll end up much cheaper.
Set this as your homepage:
https://geizhals.eu/
Digilator
Senior Member
Posts: 219
Joined: 2019-05-29
Senior Member
Posts: 219
Joined: 2019-05-29
#5728735 Posted on: 11/06/2019 11:44 PM
My 4TB "secondary" suits me fine. Suppose ~20TB would be nice for those that want to install a bunch of games and/or have a lot of HQ media. Not sure if it is a thing, but that size could be used for a HTPC, for a bunch of BLU-RAY rips.
My 4TB "secondary" suits me fine. Suppose ~20TB would be nice for those that want to install a bunch of games and/or have a lot of HQ media. Not sure if it is a thing, but that size could be used for a HTPC, for a bunch of BLU-RAY rips.
Click here to post a comment for this news story on the message forum.
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Haha Seagate sure doesn't want HDDs to die. But, as long as they can get capacities that otherwise can't be achieved with SSDs in the same amount of space, these drives will be relevant. This is especially true, now that we're got cameras that can capture raw 4K (or even 8K) footage, thousands of frames per second, or photos at 45MP+. I figure these drives aren't going to be too popular for mainframes, since the seek times will likely be terrible, and a mainframe usually has plenty of room to fit more small drives.