Guru3D.com
  • HOME
  • NEWS
    • Channels
    • Archive
  • DOWNLOADS
    • New Downloads
    • Categories
    • Archive
  • GAME REVIEWS
  • ARTICLES
    • Rig of the Month
    • Join ROTM
    • PC Buyers Guide
    • Guru3D VGA Charts
    • Editorials
    • Dated content
  • HARDWARE REVIEWS
    • Videocards
    • Processors
    • Audio
    • Motherboards
    • Memory and Flash
    • SSD Storage
    • Chassis
    • Media Players
    • Power Supply
    • Laptop and Mobile
    • Smartphone
    • Networking
    • Keyboard Mouse
    • Cooling
    • Search articles
    • Knowledgebase
    • More Categories
  • FORUMS
  • NEWSLETTER
  • CONTACT

New Reviews
MS Flight Simulator (2020): the 2021 PC graphics performance benchmark review
Radeon Series RX 6700 XT preview & analysis
Corsair MM700 & Corsair Katar Pro XT Review
Guru3D Rig of the Month - February 2021
ASUS GeForce RTX 3060 STRIX Gaming OC review
EVGA GeForce RTX 3060 XC Gaming review
MSI GeForce RTX 3060 Gaming X TRIO review
PALIT GeForce RTX 3060 DUAL OC review
ZOTAC GeForce RTX 3060 AMP WHITE review
Fractal Design Meshify 2 Compact chassis review

New Downloads
GeForce 461.81 hotfix driver download
ClockTuner for Ryzen (CTR) v2.0 RC4 Download
SiSoft Sandra 20/21 download v31.12
Intel HD graphics Driver Download Version: DCH 27.20.100.9316
AIDA64 Download Version 6.32.5644 beta
FurMark Download v1.25
MSI Afterburner 4.6.3 Final Stable Download
Display Driver Uninstaller Download version 18.0.3.7
Guru3D RTSS Rivatuner Statistics Server Download 7.3.0 Final
Media Player Classic - Home Cinema v1.9.10 Download


New Forum Topics
My experience with 4-way Sli thus far MSI Adds GeForce RTX 3080 GAMING Z TRIO and GAMING TRIO PLUS WDDM 3.0 / 465.42 Modder doubles GeForce RTX 3070 memory from 8GB to 16 GB GDDR6X Cooler Master releases V850 Gold V2 PSU in a White Edition Dell XPS 13 Premium Notebooks with 11th gen Core processors Released Question about data corruption on mechanical hard drive BIOSTAR releases S160 SATS3 SSD series Sony Preps CMOS sensor at 127.68 million pixels with Global Shutter Funtion GeForce Hotfix Driver Version 461.81




Guru3D.com » News » Oversupply to Continue Affecting NAND Flash Prices - 10-15% Decline Expected in 1Q21

Oversupply to Continue Affecting NAND Flash Prices - 10-15% Decline Expected in 1Q21

by Hilbert Hagedoorn on: 12/14/2020 10:15 AM | source: | 4 comment(s)
Oversupply to Continue Affecting NAND Flash Prices - 10-15% Decline Expected in 1Q21

According to investigations, it is expected that NAND Flash ASP to undergo QoQ declines throughout 2021, since the number of NAND suppliers far exceeds DRAM suppliers, and the bit supply remains high. As Samsung, YMTC, SK Hynix, and Intel actively expand their NAND Flash bit output in 1Q21.

The oversupply situation in the industry will become more severe, with a forecasted 6% QoQ increase in NAND Flash bit output and a 10-15% QoQ decline in NAND Flash ASP in 1Q21.

Client SSD prices are expected to decline by 10-15% QoQ as the inventory level of PC OEMs remains relatively high

On the matter of demand, client SSD exhibits a similar tendency compared to PC DRAM, as notebook production is expected to decline in 1Q21 due to the cyclical downturn. However, unlike PC DRAM, the client SSD inventory of PC OEMs is still currently at a rather high level, and client SSD prices are expected to continue falling. PC OEMs therefore will not exhibit advance procurement demand for client SSDs, leading to a lack of upward momentum supporting the overall purchasing demand of client SSDs. On the matter of supply, the oversupply of client SSD will unlikely change in 1Q21, since major NAND Flash manufacturers are still proactively sending their latest 128L samples for testing, and the second U.S. supplier is starting to ramp up QLC SSD production. Taking the above into account, client SSD prices are expected to decrease by 10-15% QoQ in 1Q21.

 

 

As price competition between PCIe SSD suppliers intensifies, enterprise SSD prices are expected to drop by 10-15% QoQ

With respect to demand, enterprise SSD is likewise quite similar to server DRAM, as they are both affected by the traditional off-season for branded server manufacturers and the continued inventory destocking from data center clients. Before the ramp-up of Intel’s next-generation Whitley Gen 2 – Ice Lake platform, the volume of enterprise SSD orders will undergo a further decline in 1Q21 compared to 4Q20. With respect to supply, product testing of 128/144L PCIe G4 SSD samples from Samsung and Intel are currently underway. At the same time, Kioxia is also attempting to obtain additional certifications from data centers with its PCIe G4 products. As more SSD suppliers release their respective PCIe products, the price competition for enterprise SSDs will further intensify going forward. Hence, enterprise SSD prices are expected to decrease by 10-15% QoQ in 1Q21.

eMMC/UFS prices are projected to drop by 5-10% QoQ in 1Q21 given high demand for end-products and tightening supply

Demand-wise, the proactive stock-up activities from OPPO, Vivo, and Xiaomi, as well as the establishment of new Honor, have provided some upward support for the overall demand for eMMC and UFS products. Furthermore, flourishing orders for Chromebooks have also propelled demand for low- and mid-capacity (32/64GB) eMMC. Despite the oversupply situation of the NAND Flash market, the decline in eMMC/UFS prices will likely be narrower than other product categories. On the other hand, the supply of eMMC products 32GB and below will continue to diminish, since suppliers have mostly decided to stop updating these products and to continue manufacturing those using older processes. This indicates that prices will be much stabilized in the long run.

Also, there has been insufficient production capacity for controllers manufactured by TSMC and UMC in the upstream eMMC/UFS supply chain. This insufficiency subsequently prompted eMMC/UFS suppliers to shift towards the provision of high-capacity products in order to increase NAND Flash consumption, thereby further reducing the supply of low capacity products. UFS comprises the majority of products that are 64GB and above, and the supply of 92/96L products are currently sufficient. Suppliers are planning to transition into 1XX L or 1YY L products mostly after 2Q21. Thus, the overall price drop of eMMC/UFS products will be relatively narrow in 1Q21. Their prices are projected to decline by 5-10% QoQ in 1Q21.

As demand for memory cards and UFDs are unlikely to recover in 1Q21, NAND Flash wafer prices are expected to decrease by nearly 15% QoQ

The end demand regarding sales of memory cards and UFD from the retail end will experience difficulties in recovery in 1Q21 with the conclusion of festival demand and e-commerce promotion, the arrival of the traditional off season, and the impact of the pandemic. In terms of supply, as most products are still in a state of oversupply, and certain components, including controllers, are constrained by the production capacity of foundries, various suppliers are experiencing increasing pressure to divert to the wafer market. In terms of manufacturing processes, suppliers such as Samsung and Kioxia have begun selling 92/96L products to module makers, whereas WDC and SK Hynix are even more aggressive by having already provided samples of 112L and 128L products to clients for integration, resulting in a rapid increase in bit supply and a near-15% QoQ price drop for NAND Flash wafers in 1Q21.



Oversupply to Continue Affecting NAND Flash Prices - 10-15% Decline Expected in 1Q21




« Guru3D 2020 December 14th contest - Win a K71M Outemu Mechanical keyboard from I-Rocks · Oversupply to Continue Affecting NAND Flash Prices - 10-15% Decline Expected in 1Q21 · Biostar announces launch of their brand new B550M-SILVER motherboard. »

Related Stories

NAND Flash Prices Will Continue to Decline Due To Oversupply - 04/16/2018 07:42 AM
Good news for anything with NAND Flash storage in it. Due to an oversupply in the NAND flash memory market, prices of the chips will continue to decrease, according to market research company DRAMeX...

NAND flash pricing dropping due to oversupply - 04/24/2012 09:28 AM
DigiTimes reports NAND flash memory pricing continued to decline in early April, due to low demand visibility and overproduction caused by faster-than-expected production ramp-ups at NAND suppliers. P...


Clawedge
Senior Member



Posts: 2599
Joined: 2006-09-02

#5866491 Posted on: 12/14/2020 11:03 AM
Hmmmm. Wasn't there an outage recently at a factory...?

Is this a pre-announcement to another outage, fire, flood, earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, storm, someone clogging a toilet.....

Suspicious dog is suspicious.


Kool64
Senior Member



Posts: 1007
Joined: 2006-10-21

#5866642 Posted on: 12/14/2020 03:30 PM
I've got 4 1tb SSDs in my PC right now. Got an intel 665P in an enclosure on USB3.2(pulls 1000mb/s) for less than $100 thanks to the lower prices. I won't need any until one of them dies.

heffeque
Senior Member



Posts: 4095
Joined: 2003-03-03

#5866846 Posted on: 12/14/2020 09:01 PM
Still waiting for a 4TB SATA SSD that's around 260 € (right now the cheapest I can find is around 400 €). I'll buy 3 of them right out of the bat as soon as any brand does that, and I'll stick'em in a DS620slim (or whatever equivalent is out when that price comes) to have the initial part of my future silent SSD NAS (on SHR-1, BTRFS with self-healing activated), and I'll add more SATA SSD as I run out of space (no need to be same size thanks to the magic of SHR).

Venix
Senior Member



Posts: 1533
Joined: 2016-08-01

#5866997 Posted on: 12/15/2020 06:52 AM
Good news everyone ! Minus the nand manufacturers :p

Post New Comment
Click here to post a comment for this news story on the message forum.


Guru3D.com © 2021