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Intel CPUs: Ten-year plan to includes 1.4nm and a two-year cadence
Intel has the means to return to a new process technology every two-years with a new roadmap showing 10nm up-to 1.4nm fabrication processors, it was ASML that made this slide public, not Intel.
At this year's conference for electronic components IEDM, ASML Dutch manufacturer of lithography systems ASML spoke about the future of Intel's process technology. According to a slide presented by CEO Martin van den Brink, Intel even wants to start manufacturing in 1.4 nanometers ten years from now.
First things first, 10 nm production is due in three iterations, which has already started with Ice Lake for low- and ultra-low-voltage devices and will be completed in 2021 with 10nm ++ and 10nm+++. In the same year, 7 nm mass production using the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) process would begin. Much like 10nm, the 7nm nodes are to be given three revisions as well, which, however, are each identified without a plus (x nm), with a plus (x nm +) and with two plus signs (x nm ++).
In 2021, Ponte Vecchio (GPU) based on the Xe architecture is to be the first 7 nm representative of Intel to be produced in series, although initially for Exascale servers. Two-year cadence, but no concrete figures (yes they mentioned 2021).
The releases slide then shows 5nm for 2023, 3nm and 2nm in 2025 and 2027, and then 1.4 nm in 2029. Fun fact, 1.4 nm is the thickness of only twelve silicon atoms
TSMC will start mass-producing 5 nm chips as early as next year and aim to boost the mass production of 3 nm products in 2022, the figures quoted by ASML do not appear to be unrealistic, even if Intel recently found it difficult who struggled with 10nm manufacturing.
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cryohellinc
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#5740955 Posted on: 12/13/2019 08:14 AM
Intel plans....
Intel plans....
Andy Watson
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#5740960 Posted on: 12/13/2019 08:31 AM
Perhaps that slide should be titled "No Moore we trust"
Seriously though, it's all well and good having these multiyear road plans but they are subject to change and are really just a best case scenario. This actually is more what the EUV manufacturer can provide than what Intel will be doing....
Perhaps that slide should be titled "No Moore we trust"
Seriously though, it's all well and good having these multiyear road plans but they are subject to change and are really just a best case scenario. This actually is more what the EUV manufacturer can provide than what Intel will be doing....
Kaarme
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#5740963 Posted on: 12/13/2019 08:33 AM
I kind of trust more in TSMC's plans than Intel's. Although one has to respect Intel engineers for being able to stretch the 14nm so far, as an achievement, not as a plan, especially since they didn't do much to the designs, sticking to the same old Core architecture all the way. In other words, they got the clocks so high they could still keep beating AMD in single-threaded performance, despite AMD refining a modern architecture on 7nm. In still other words you could say the Intel engineers could pull it off with both hands tied behind their backs by the not overly smart but all the greedier Intel execs and CEO (who have since been replaced, I believe).
I kind of trust more in TSMC's plans than Intel's. Although one has to respect Intel engineers for being able to stretch the 14nm so far, as an achievement, not as a plan, especially since they didn't do much to the designs, sticking to the same old Core architecture all the way. In other words, they got the clocks so high they could still keep beating AMD in single-threaded performance, despite AMD refining a modern architecture on 7nm. In still other words you could say the Intel engineers could pull it off with both hands tied behind their backs by the not overly smart but all the greedier Intel execs and CEO (who have since been replaced, I believe).
sverek
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#5740965 Posted on: 12/13/2019 08:35 AM
Intel in 2030 : We put dot in "1.4nm" by mistake.
Also Intel : Instead let us introduce this awesome 14nm+++++++++++++++ Coke-Cola Lake!
Intel in 2030 : We put dot in "1.4nm" by mistake.
Also Intel : Instead let us introduce this awesome 14nm+++++++++++++++ Coke-Cola Lake!
Cyberdyne
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#5740966 Posted on: 12/13/2019 08:35 AM
Presumably Intel has (hopefully) learned a lot from 10 nm R&D and production. They seem to finally be over that hill, so maybe it will be much smoother for them to continue to shrink. Who knows.
Presumably Intel has (hopefully) learned a lot from 10 nm R&D and production. They seem to finally be over that hill, so maybe it will be much smoother for them to continue to shrink. Who knows.
SweenJM
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#5740968 Posted on: 12/13/2019 08:37 AM
I am still not sure how they are getting past the quantum tunneling issues that are inherent below 4nm. Above my pay grade.
I am still not sure how they are getting past the quantum tunneling issues that are inherent below 4nm. Above my pay grade.
Robbo9999
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#5740974 Posted on: 12/13/2019 09:11 AM
Well, if it's true that Intel can hold to this 10yr plan, then what they're basically saying is that they will need to move to a completely different technology after that 10yr point because they ain't gonna be shrinking it below 1.4nm using silicon. A fundamental change would need to happen from that 10yr point in order to see further improvments - either by linking together many individual chips (which is on the plans anyway before that 10yr time frame comes up), but there are limitations with linking chips, you can only link so many chips together until you start running out of physical space and cooling/power abilities. So it looks to me that Intel is committing to a completely different technology (away from silicon) sometime relatively soon after this 10yr plan - I think that's the upshot of all this. Therefore, perhaps in 2035 we won't be using silicon chip technology for cutting edge performance applications and it will have moved onto something else....to put that into perspective 2004 was not that long ago right!
Well, if it's true that Intel can hold to this 10yr plan, then what they're basically saying is that they will need to move to a completely different technology after that 10yr point because they ain't gonna be shrinking it below 1.4nm using silicon. A fundamental change would need to happen from that 10yr point in order to see further improvments - either by linking together many individual chips (which is on the plans anyway before that 10yr time frame comes up), but there are limitations with linking chips, you can only link so many chips together until you start running out of physical space and cooling/power abilities. So it looks to me that Intel is committing to a completely different technology (away from silicon) sometime relatively soon after this 10yr plan - I think that's the upshot of all this. Therefore, perhaps in 2035 we won't be using silicon chip technology for cutting edge performance applications and it will have moved onto something else....to put that into perspective 2004 was not that long ago right!
toyo
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#5740975 Posted on: 12/13/2019 09:12 AM
This looks like a bunch of coping from Intel. As a happy 8700K owner, I don't trust them to deliver after their endless shitty 14nm++++++++++ crap.
Fewer words, more actual products, and shut that embarrassing marketing team and its crap.
This looks like a bunch of coping from Intel. As a happy 8700K owner, I don't trust them to deliver after their endless shitty 14nm++++++++++ crap.
Fewer words, more actual products, and shut that embarrassing marketing team and its crap.
insp1re2600
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#5740977 Posted on: 12/13/2019 09:22 AM
1.4nm Ricki Lake
1.4nm Ricki Lake
angelgraves13
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#5740989 Posted on: 12/13/2019 10:13 AM
Intel should quit the fab business...they're obviously not very good at it anymore. Going fabless will save them billions, as there's no way they can keep up with TSMC.
Intel should quit the fab business...they're obviously not very good at it anymore. Going fabless will save them billions, as there's no way they can keep up with TSMC.
Astyanax
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#5740994 Posted on: 12/13/2019 10:23 AM
lol, you're a good laugh.
lol, you're a good laugh.
nevcairiel
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#5741000 Posted on: 12/13/2019 10:41 AM
Their 10nm problems are the real crap, the amount of performance they managed to get out of their 14nm process to compensate for the 10nm problems is quite unparalleled in the industry and makes their 14nm one of the best nodes ever. Its just at the end of its lifetime now.
I don't trust them to deliver after their endless shitty 14nm++++++++++ crap.
Their 10nm problems are the real crap, the amount of performance they managed to get out of their 14nm process to compensate for the 10nm problems is quite unparalleled in the industry and makes their 14nm one of the best nodes ever. Its just at the end of its lifetime now.
asturur
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#5741051 Posted on: 12/13/2019 12:43 PM
The fact that AMD can produce at 7nm, and reach or surpass a 14nm from intel, does not make 14nm process a crap.
You guys, again, you want a fast CPU, you do not want a piece of technology.
Some of you would buy a 5nm 386 (at least is 32bit ) if it was available.
The fact that AMD can produce at 7nm, and reach or surpass a 14nm from intel, does not make 14nm process a crap.
You guys, again, you want a fast CPU, you do not want a piece of technology.
Some of you would buy a 5nm 386 (at least is 32bit ) if it was available.
DeskStar
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#5741058 Posted on: 12/13/2019 12:57 PM
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAH
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAH
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Hi Hilbert, and happy Xmas to you all. That is interesting and hard to get my head round. What wattage and what heat will be given in years to come?
Cpu's have come a long way, well the whole tech has. A 286 and then an Athlon are few of the chips I have owned. My favourite Cpu for what it did has to be the i7920 @2.66. This in my mind was Intel's wonder chip, a 2.66Ghz that could go 4Ghz and higher. That was the OC's heaven.