1Q20 NAND Flash Price Is Projected to Continue Rising
The contract price of client SSD has fallen for seven consecutive quarters until 2Q19 from peak price, to barely above the price of HDD.
As a result of this price decrease, the share of SSD, along with their capacity, used in notebook computers has risen since 2Q19. On the supply side, the June 15 power outage at the Yokkaichi fab jointly operated by Kioxia and WDC forced the two companies to reduce their NAND production, in turn halting the price drop of eMMC/UFS and SSD products in 3Q19. On the other hand, there was a sharp uptick in the wafer market leading to a 20% increase in 3Q19 wafer prices. As well, the contract prices of eMMC/UFS and SSD made a strong recovery in 4Q19.
From the perspective of client-side demand, despite increased contract prices in 4Q19 and the subsequent weakening of bit demand for client SSD, data center clients are actively preparing for new projects in 2020. This has the effect of increasing the momentum for enterprise stock-up demand, which resulted in a supply shortage for enterprise SSD in 4Q19. The contract price of enterprise SSD is thus expected to hold up. Aside from data center clients’ galvanizing of restocking demand, the restocking demand from the mobile devices sector began surging since 4Q19 because of Apple’s new iPhones, to be released in 1H20. The overall demand for NAND Flash in 1Q20 is projected to be strong despite seasonal headwinds.
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Guess that was coming after yesterday's news.
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Yeah, every time the prices fall there is some power outage, flood or fire or whatever and prices rise up again. Just freaky convenient how that works.
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Horse S#%t....
Projection is just excuse...
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Ever notice how 'power outages' are never reported by auto makers, because they have incentive to make sure they don't happen, and if they do, they sure as hell don't get reported? Because Toyota can't say "sorry, the power outage means our Corolla is now 20% more expensive" - because there is actual competition with auto makers. A power outage at a production line for Toyota means tons of LOST MONEY. An outage getting reported in the news would SINK their stock price.
But whenever a production shortage happens with chip makers, they rush to announce it to the world, then all the chip makers then raise prices together and make record profits. And when conspiracy charges eventually get filed, they get hit with a $180M fine and laugh it off because they made +10 billion profit. Assuming they ever even pay the fine since they usually just appeal and appeal and appeal until some judge reduces it to $1M or dismisses it etc.
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How convenient!